NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.

Recent Business and Financial Updates

• Strong Q1 2026 Results and Revised Guidance: NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported exceptional financial results for Q1 2026 with earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.96, surpassing the forecast of USD 0.93, and revenue of USD 44.1 billion, exceeding expectations of USD 43.31 billion, as announced during its earnings call. However, the company lowered its Q2 guidance, projecting revenue at approximately USD 45 billion, a modest sequential increase, but highlighted a significant anticipated decline in China data center revenue due to new U.S. export controls on its H20 GPU, resulting in an expected USD 8 billion revenue loss in Q2, following a USD 4.5 billion inventory write-down in Q1. This reduction reflects NVIDIA’s cautious outlook amid geopolitical constraints, which investors should carefully evaluate when assessing near-term growth prospects.
• Impact of China Export Restrictions and Rising Competition: CEO Jensen Huang addressed the impact of U.S. export controls on NVIDIA’s H20 GPU, noting that the China market, valued at USD 50 billion, is effectively closed to U.S. industry, ending NVIDIA’s Hopper data center business in the region and necessitating a multi-billion-dollar inventory write-off, as the company cannot repurpose or sell its existing stock. Huang emphasized that these restrictions would intensify competition, as shielding Chinese chipmakers from U.S. competition strengthens their innovation and scale, potentially weakening NVIDIA’s global position in the AI race, particularly as China continues to develop advanced AI models like DeepSeek and QN, which are gaining traction worldwide. This development poses a strategic risk for NVIDIA, as losing access to one of the world’s largest AI markets could materially impact on its business while benefiting foreign competitors, a critical factor for investors to consider.
• Robust Data Center Growth as a Key Strength: NVIDIA’s data center segment emerged as a standout performer, generating USD 39 billion in revenue, a 73% year-over-year increase, driven by the rapid adoption of Blackwell architecture, which contributed nearly 70% of data center computing revenue in Q1 2026. The transition from the Hopper to Blackwell platform, coupled with AI factory buildouts and a sharp rise in inference demanded by Microsoft processing over 100 trillion tokens, a fivefold increase year-over-year—underscores NVIDIA’s leadership in AI infrastructure, making it a compelling area for investor focus. This growth highlights NVIDIA’s ability to capitalize on the escalating demand for AI workloads, positioning it as a dominant player in the data center market despite challenges in China.
• Advancements in AI Inference and Industry Applications: NVIDIA reported a significant surge in inference demand, with major hyperscalers like Microsoft, OpenAI, and Google experiencing a step-function increase in token generation, driven by reasoning AI models that require hundreds to thousands of times more tokens per task than traditional inference. The company’s Blackwell NVL 72 system turbocharges AI inference throughput by 30x, as demonstrated in MLPerf benchmarks, and has enabled enterprises like Cisco (40% model accuracy increase) and NASDAQ (30% improvement in AI search capabilities) to enhance their AI platforms, while partnerships with Yum Brands to deploy AI in 61,000 restaurants and with cybersecurity firms like Cloudstrike (doubling detection speed) highlight NVIDIA’s broadening industry impact, offering investors a view into its diverse growth avenues.
• Innovative Product Launches and AI Expansion: The company launched several innovative products, including the Blackwell architecture and GB 200 NVL systems, alongside the LAMA Nemotron family of reasoning models, which deliver a 20% accuracy boost and 5x faster inference, enhancing enterprise AI applications across industries. NVIDIA’s expansion into agentic AI, capable of reasoning and acting, is transforming sectors, with deployments by leading firms like Accenture, Deloitte, and Microsoft, while new offerings like DGX Spark and Station, delivering up to 20 petaflops, cater to AI supercomputing needs, positioning NVIDIA as a leader in transformative AI technologies and a key driver of long-term investment value.
• Networking and Sovereign AI Growth Opportunities: NVIDIA’s networking segment also showed strength, with revenue increasing 64% sequentially to USD 5 billion, driven by the adoption of Spectrum X, now annualizing over USD 8 billion, and the introduction of NVLink Fusion, enabling hyperscale customers to build custom accelerators, with Q1 shipments exceeding USD 1 billion. Additionally, the company is capitalizing on the global push for sovereign AI, partnering on projects like a 500-megawatt AI infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and a 5-gigawatt AI campus in the UAE, positioning NVIDIA as a critical player in national AI platforms, which could drive significant future revenue growth and enhance its global market presence.
• Risks and Strategic Considerations: Despite its strengths, NVIDIA faces notable risks, including a potential further decline in China data center revenue, increased competition from Chinese AI firms, economic uncertainties affecting demand, and supply chain challenges that could disrupt production timelines. The company’s high stock volatility and the need to monitor gross margin trends, expected to improve to the mid-70s range by late 2025, as a measure of profitability amidst rising operating expenses, projected to grow in the mid-30% range for fiscal 2026 are to be noted. Balancing these risks against NVIDIA’s strong data center growth, innovative product pipeline, and global AI expansion will be crucial for informed investment decisions.

Technical Observation (on the daily chart):

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66.64, currently upward trending crossing 60 levels indicating bullishness with decent momentum, with the expectations of consolidation or upward momentum if the USD 115.00-USD 120.00 support holds. In addition, the current price is above both the 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and 200-day SMA, which may work as medium to long term support levels.

NVIDIA Corporation showcased decent performance in Q1 2026, with revenue of USD 44.1 billion and an EPS of USD 0.96, surpassing forecasts, driven by a 73% year-over-year data center revenue increase to USD 39 billion, fueled by the Blackwell architecture’s 70% contribution and a 30x AI inference throughput boost, alongside a 64% sequential networking revenue growth to USD 5 billion, annualizing Spectrum X at over USD 8 billion, and strategic sovereign AI initiatives like a 5-gigawatt AI campus in the UAE, positioning NVIDIA as a leader in AI infrastructure with significant growth potential despite export challenges in China. Additionally, the company’s gaming revenue reached a record USD 3.8 billion, up 48% sequentially, reflecting strong demand for its Blackwell-based GeForce RTX 5060 series. NVIDIA’s partnerships with industry leaders like Microsoft, which deployed tens of thousands of Blackwell GPUs, and Yum Brands, integrating AI across 61,000 restaurants, further underscore its diversified growth avenues. Moreover, the company returned a record USD 14.3 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends, reinforcing its commitment to delivering shareholder value while maintaining a robust innovation pipeline.

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Buy’ rating has been given NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) at the closing price of USD 134.81, as of May 28, 2025. 

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc. 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is May 28, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.