Trevena, Inc.

TRVN Details

Trevena, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRVN) is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in developing and commercializing novel therapies for people suffering from Central Nervous System (CNS) diseases. TRVN currently has only one approved product OLINVYK (oliceridine) injection, which is used to treat individuals with acute pain severe enough to require an intravenous opioid analgesic and for whom other therapies are ineffective. Its product pipeline also includes TRV027 for acute lung injury, TRV250 for migraines, TRV734 for chronic pain and opioid use disorder and TRV045 for epilepsy. As of October 15, 2021, the company's market capitalization stood at USD 187.54 million.

Latest News:

• Proof-of-Concept Study of TRV027: On September 30, 2021, TRVN released data from 30 COVID-19 patients who participated in a proof-of-concept study using TRV027, its innovative AT1 receptor-selective agonist, carried out at Imperial College London in collaboration with the British Heart Foundation Imperial Centre for Research Excellence Award. TRV027 was well tolerated, and the findings indicated that it could improve biomarker and clinical endpoints related to COVID-19 disease severity and progression. It was also observed that the TRV027 reduced the average hospitalization days by ~12 days in contrast to placebo.

Q2FY21 Results:

• Visibility in Topline: TRVN reported total revenue of USD 0.18 million for Q2FY21 (ended June 30, 2021). It did not report any revenue in Q2FY20.
• Increase in R&D Expenses: The company incurred research and development (R & R&D) expenses of USD 3.45 million in Q2FY21 compared to USD 2.96 million in Q2FY20. The increase was attributable to higher spending on the development of TRV045.
• Expansion of Net Losses: The company's net loss increased to USD 14.02 million in Q2FY21 from USD 6.22 million in Q2FY20.
• Cash and Debt Position: As of June 30, 2021, the company had cash and cash equivalents of USD 90.95 million and total debt of USD 0.01 million.

Risks:

• Product Concentration Risk: TRVN's prospects are dependent solely on the commercial success of OLINVYK, its only product offering. Successful commercialization of OLINVYK depends on its endorsement by the physicians and the readiness of patients to take it, and their unwillingness to prescribe/continue the drug could harm the company's financial performance.
• Regulatory Risk: TRVN must conduct its business in the ambit of a strict regulatory environment. Non-observance of norms could lead to recall or suspension of prior approvals.

Outlook:

Multiple Expected Catalysts (Source: Corporate Presentation, September 2021)

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Multiple Based Relative Valuation   

(Analysis by Kalkine Group)

* % Premium/(Discount) is based on our assessment of the company's NTM trading multiple after considering its key growth drivers, economic moat, stock's historical trading multiples versus peer average/median, and investment risks.

TRVN Daily Technical Chart (Source: REFINITIV)

Stock Recommendation:

TRVN's share price has decreased 46.23% in the past nine months and is currently leaning towards the lower end of its 52-week range of USD 1.09 to USD 3.10. The stock is currently trading below its 50 and 200 DMA levels, and its RSI Index is at 39.51. We have valued the stock using the EV/Sales-based relative valuation methodology and arrived at a target price of USD 1.40.

Considering the correction in the stock price in the past nine months, encouraging outlook, and associated risks, we recommend a "Speculative Buy" rating on the stock at the closing price of USD 1.14, down 1.72% as of October 15, 2021.

* The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

* All forecasted figures and industry information have been taken from REFINITIV.

* Depending upon the risk tolerance, investors may consider unwinding their positions in a respective stock once the estimated target price is reached.

Disclaimer - This report has been issued by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and prepared by Kalkine and its related bodies corporate authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any advice provided in this report is general advice only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the advice is appropriate to your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Statement or other offer document for the securities or other financial products referred to in Kalkine reports. You should obtain a copy of the relevant Product Disclosure Statement, Information Statement or offer document and consider the statement or document before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or product.

You should also seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) as necessary before acting on any advice in this report or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this report and on the Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of information contained in its reports, newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice.

Kalkine does not guarantee the performance of, or returns on, any investment. To the extent permitted by law, Kalkine excludes all liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this report, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website (including any indirect or consequential loss, any data loss or data corruption). If the law prohibits this exclusion, Kalkine hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of services.

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information.

On the date of publishing this report (referred to on the Kalkine website), employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities do not hold interests in any of the securities or other financial products covered on the Kalkine website.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website.