This report is an updated version of the report published on 29 April 2026 at 11:10 AM AEST.

Company Overview: 

Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX: AMI) is an Australian mining and exploration company operating in the Cobar Basin in western New South Wales. The company operates underground base metal mines across its Peak and Federation operations and is advancing the Great Cobar copper project. Its production portfolio includes copper, gold, zinc, and lead. The Federation mine has transitioned to commercial production in FY26, contributing to group output.  

Recommendation Rationale – AUD 0.310

• Surpassed Resistance: AMI’s share price has surpassed the R1 level recommended on 15 April 2026; hence, the stock could face some resistance in the near term.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/EBITDA, Price/Earnings, and Price/Cash Flow) are higher or overvalued than average of the Basic Materials’ sector. Valuation for AMI appears stretched after the recent rally, with much of the operational improvement and upgraded gold guidance likely already priced in.
• Commodity Price Risk: The company’s earnings momentum is becoming increasingly dependent on elevated gold prices, creating vulnerability if bullion prices correct.
• Revenue Decline: Gross sales revenue declined sequentially to AU$120.0 million in Q3 FY26 from AU$127.1 million in Q2 FY26, despite stronger gold prices, reflecting weaker base metal contribution.
• Increased Operating Cost: Operating costs increased to AU$76.7 million in Q3 FY26 from AU$73.8 million in Q2 FY26, indicating ongoing inflationary and operational pressures.

Daily Price Charts

Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITV 

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Per Share Approach (FY June'27E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, considering the high gold exposure, new AU$150 million financing package improving liquidity, visible pipeline with expansion and Great Cobar project. For conducting valuation, following peers have been considered - Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL), Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX), and AIC Mines Ltd (ASX: A1M).

Given the stock has surpassed its R1 level, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 0.310, at 10:40 AM AEST, as of 29 April 2026. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 29 April 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.