Key highlights

  • NEXTDC revised FY27 net Revenue guidance to A$475–500 million and Underlying EBITDA guidance to A$245–265 million, excluding the affected M3 contracts, in its 21 October 2026 release.
  • FY27 Capital Expenditure guidance was revised to A$4,500–5,000 million, with all new development projects and land acquisitions on hold.
  • Liquidity was A$8,675 million at 30 September 2026, and the company said it is in compliance with its financial covenants.

NEXTDC Ltd (ASX:NXT) shares were down 39.87% at $5.52 during the Trading session on 21 October 2026. The S&P/ASX 200 Info Tech [XIJ] index stood at 1,614.00, down 3.38% (56.50 points), while the S&P/ASX 200 [XJO] was at 8,811.10, down 0.066% (5.80 points), as at 3:12 pm GMT+11. Overseas on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.02% to 52,495.88 and the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,712.57, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped about 0.02% to 26,424.82, with several large technology shares lower as investors reassessed valuations and upcoming earnings. NEXTDC is an ASX 100-listed Australian data centre operator that provides data-centre-as-a-service infrastructure for cloud, enterprise and government customers.

What NEXTDC does

NEXTDC Limited designs, builds and operates data centres, providing power, security and connectivity for Cloud Computing providers, enterprises and government. It describes its facilities as Australia’s only network of Uptime Institute certified Tier IV data centres, and it operates a Cloud Centre partner ecosystem of carriers, cloud providers and IT service providers. The company commissioned KL1 in Kuala Lumpur in May 2026, and Malaysia is no longer treated as an early-stage market in its guidance definitions.

M3 Melbourne power delay

In an ASX release dated 21 October 2026, NEXTDC said it was revising its FY27 guidance primarily because of delays to electricity network works by Jemena Electricity Networks (Vic) Ltd, which defer the next increase in grid Supply to its M3 Melbourne data centre. Jemena advised that it had suspended parts of the works because of community and stakeholder opposition, and has formally notified NEXTDC that it does not expect to recommence them before February 2027.

NEXTDC now expects the first increase in grid supply during FY28, with delivery and billing of the related contracted capacity to follow shortly after. Later supply increases depend on Upstream transmission projects at the Brooklyn Terminal Station, the first of which is now expected later than previously. Construction of the M3 data halls is continuing within existing buildings.

Revised FY27 guidance

FY27 net revenue guidance is now A$475–500 million, down from A$615–640 million, and Underlying EBITDA guidance is A$245–265 million, down from A$385–410 million. Both revisions exclude the revenue and attributable EBITDA of the affected M3 contracts, including capacity already billing and any potential service level credits. The company said the 27 August 2026 guidance included approximately A$140 million of each of net revenue and Underlying EBITDA from those contracts, and that their exclusion is the main reason for the reductions.

NEXTDC stated that it cannot yet reliably estimate the FY27 contribution of the affected contracts and that actual FY27 results will include that contribution. Service level credits payable could reduce Underlying EBITDA below the revised guidance. Changes in the timing and cost of completing M3 are also likely to affect the Fair Value of its Investment properties, which it will reflect in the half year to 31 December 2026.

Capital expenditure and liquidity

FY27 capital expenditure guidance was revised to A$4,500–5,000 million from A$5,250–5,750 million. The revised range includes about A$500 million of reimbursable customer fit-out and about A$230 million of capitalised interest, which the earlier guidance excluded; before capitalised interest, it is about A$4,270–4,770 million, a like-for-like reduction of about A$980 million. NEXTDC has put all new development projects and land acquisitions on hold and will announce the outcome of a capital expenditure review by its AGM on 20 November 2026, when the Board will also evaluate capital recycling, including possible sales of selected development sites.

Liquidity at 30 September 2026 was A$8,675 million, made up of A$1,275 million of cash, A$6,700 million of undrawn senior Debt facilities and a A$700 million Hybrid Securities B delayed draw series. The company reported compliance with its financial covenants at 30 June 2026, which include a gearing ratio of not more than 60% and an Interest Cover ratio of at least 1.5 times, and expects compliance at 31 December 2026. It issued A$1,100 million of 1.75% subordinated convertible notes due 2031 on 17 September 2026.

Planning decision and customer contracts

A planning permit decision for M3 Stages 6 and 7, lodged in February 2026, is expected only after the Victorian State election on 28 November 2026, with caretaker conventions from 3 November, and NEXTDC does not expect the decision until 2027. The affected customer contracts provide for service level credits where capacity is delivered late or not fully powered and, in some circumstances, give the customer rights to terminate. NEXTDC is considering whether relief is available under Force Majeure provisions, and said the deferred capacity remains under contract, subject to the customer’s rights.

Sector context

Technology shares are being assessed against Earnings and valuations. During the session, the S&P/ASX 200 Info Tech index was at 1,614.00, down 3.38%, and the broader S&P/ASX 200 was at 8,811.10. In the United States, the Nasdaq is described as sensitive to corporate earnings and forward guidance and to artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. Data centre operators depend on grid connections and third-party network works, and the release attributes the M3 delay to approvals and community opposition affecting power infrastructure. The release was issued on the same day as the session described above.

Risks and uncertainties

The company states that the timing and scale of the M3 contribution are uncertain, that service level credits could reduce EBITDA below guidance, and that the customer may have termination rights in some circumstances. Delays could also adversely affect its ability to draw down senior debt while complying with covenants, because drawdown depends on expected customer billing profiles. Further factors include the planning decision timing, upstream transmission delays, the fair value of investment property and the cost of completing M3.

Catalysts to watch

Items referenced include the AGM on 20 November 2026 with the outcome of the capex review, the Victorian election on 28 November 2026, Jemena’s consultation and any resumption of works from February 2027, the half-year result for the period to 31 December 2026 and the covenant test on that date.

Closing perspective

NEXTDC’s 21 October 2026 release lowered FY27 revenue, EBITDA and capex guidance and set out liquidity, covenant and planning timelines. Further updates are scheduled at the November AGM.