Key Highlights

  • The notice, reported on 26 October 2026, alleges six matters, mainly unauthorised use of certain radio spectrum bands between 2022 and 2026.
  • Simba has until 16 November 2026 to respond formally.
  • The notice follows the lapse of the M1 transaction, which was worth about S$1.43 billion.
  • Revenue rose 24% to S$187.6 million for FY26, and underlying EBITDA rose 22%.

How does a fast-growing telco end up with one of the most uncertain outlooks on the ASX? Tuas Ltd (ASX:TUA) has been adding mobile customers and lifting Revenue through its Singapore subsidiary, Simba, yet its proposed Takeover of M1 collapsed in May 2026 and, in late October, Singapore's Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) issued Simba with a show cause notice. The operating numbers are encouraging; the regulatory question now dominates how the Business is judged.

The central development: a regulatory overhang

The notice, reported on 26 October 2026, alleges six matters, mainly the unauthorised use of certain radio spectrum bands between 2022 and 2026, together with concerns about governance and compliance culture. Simba has until 16 November 2026 to respond formally. Tuas has said it intends to respond to the regulator's concerns and will not comment further while the investigation continues.

What matters for readers is that Simba is effectively the whole Earnings base of the group, so any restriction on its licence would bear directly on the company.

The notice follows the lapse of the M1 transaction. Tuas had agreed to acquire M1, one of Singapore's established mobile operators, in a deal widely reported as worth about S$1.43 billion. The company terminated it in May 2026 after the IMDA halted its regulatory review while examining a possible radio band issue, and the company has described delays and a sector-wide cyber security investigation in its FY26 presentation.

What Tuas does and how it earns revenue

Tuas is the Singapore-focused telecommunications business that listed after being separated from TPG Telecom. Through Simba it operates as a challenger, selling low-priced mobile plans, along with a growing fibre broadband offer. Revenue is driven by the number of active services, average revenue per user (ARPU) and retention. Because Simba runs a lean cost base and competes mainly on price and plan inclusions, subscriber growth is the main lever; ARPU is the pressure point.

Tuas reported FY26 results on 23 September 2026 for the year to 30 June. Revenue rose 24% to S$187.6 million and underlying EBITDA rose 22% to about S$83.7 million. Statutory net profit after tax was S$26.0 million, with underlying net profit of S$29.6 million. Active mobile services grew from about 1.254 million at the end of FY25 to about 1.458 million at 31 July 2026, and fibre broadband subscribers reached 62,000. Cash and term deposits stood at S$498.8 million at year end, which is a substantial buffer relative to the group's size.

Investment, new products and compliance costs

For FY27 it flagged Capital Expenditure of S$50 million to S$55 million on mobile and broadband infrastructure. Separately, Simba expects incremental capital and operating expenditure of S$15 million to S$30 million to meet enhanced cyber security requirements applying to owners of critical infrastructure. The company did not provide explicit FY27 revenue or EBITDA guidance in the material we reviewed, saying only that new products should support continued EBITDA growth.

The cyber security spend is worth noting alongside the spectrum matter. Both point to a regulator that is paying close attention to the sector, and to a cost base that may rise for reasons unrelated to customer growth.

Sector position and competition

Singapore's mobile market has long been dominated by a small number of large operators, and Simba's price-led entry changed consumer expectations.

The same commentary flagged risks. Competition is intensifying, with rivals offering lower-priced plans that could cannibalise Tuas's existing base at lower ARPUs, a point echoed by Executive Chair David Teoh. In a market where the challenger's selling point is price, a response from larger rivals can quickly narrow the gap.

Risks and what to monitor

The principal risk is the regulatory outcome. The range of possible results is wide, and the timing is uncertain beyond the 16 November response date. Second, ARPU pressure and competitor responses could erode margins even if subscriber numbers keep rising. Third, compliance and cyber costs of S$15 million to S$30 million in FY27 could dilute earnings growth. Fourth, with the M1 deal gone, Tuas must rely on organic growth from Simba, which depends on continued execution and, ultimately, on holding its licence in good standing.

Several developments are to watch. The first is the content of Simba's response to the IMDA and any subsequent regulatory announcement. The second is further disclosure from Tuas to the ASX, as the company is required to notify material developments. The third is subscriber and ARPU trends in any subsequent trading updates, along with progress on the new FY27 products.