PEXA Group Limited (ASX:PXA), the operator of Australia’s digital property settlement exchange, has recorded one of the largest share price declines among real estate related stocks over the past year. PEXA Group Limited (ASX:PXA) shares were priced at $6.23, down 1.74% in today’s session, and are down 60.64% over the past year. The group announced its results for the twelve months ended 30 June 2026 (FY26) on 28 August 2026.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate index [XRE] (INDEXASX: XRE) stood at 3,202.90, up 1.11% (+35.20 points) in today’s session as of 6 Oct, 4:45 pm, and is down nearly 22% over the past year.

Business Model and Operational Footprint

PEXA operates the PEXA Exchange, an electronic lodgement network operator (ELNO) used for property settlements and lodgements in Australia. It earns transaction-based Revenue from conveyancers, lenders and others using the exchange. It also operates in the United Kingdom, where it launched remortgage capability in 2022 and has delivered NatWest’s digital remortgage capability, and is working towards Sale and Purchase capability with NatWest.

During FY26 the group completed a strategic review and sale of its Digital Solutions businesses to sharpen its focus on core capabilities. Its FY27 priorities include strengthening the Australian Exchange, PEXA Clear, a Capital light pilot in New Zealand and UK adoption. The group is led by CEO Russell Cohen, who completed his first full financial year in the role.

Sector Dynamics

Property settlement volumes depend on housing transactions, interest rates and tax settings affecting property. PEXA states that macroeconomic uncertainty has begun to affect market activity and that recent changes to the taxation of property and evolving regulatory settings affect its markets. In the UK, activity is linked to Bank of England rate decisions and remortgage penetration.

The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) is reviewing ELNO service fees. PEXA’s 60.64% one-year decline compares with a fall of nearly 22% for the S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate index. PEXA is down 1.74% today at $6.23, while the index is up 1.11%.

Relative to the index, PEXA Group Limited’s one-year decline of 60.64% is about 38.6 percentage points larger than the index’s decline of nearly 22%, while its move today is down 1.74% against the index’s 1.11% rise.

FY26 Results Release

Group revenue was $406.9 million, up 7%. Group EBITDA was $151.7 million, up 12%, with a 37.3% margin, compared with 35.6%. NPATA was $65.3 million, up 35%. Statutory NPAT from continuing operations was $19.2 million, compared with a loss of $65.6 million, and Earnings Per Share from continuing operations were 10.91 cents. Free Cash Flow was $93.5 million, up 39%, and Leverage was 1.0x net Debt to EBITDA, down from 1.8x.

In July 2026, IPART released a draft report proposing a 20% cut to PEXA’s regulated revenue from FY28, with CPI increases thereafter. PEXA has identified material concerns with the methodology and assumptions applied in the draft report and continues to engage. IPART’s final report is expected by 30 September 2026. The group also noted that the eConveyancing interoperability program would not proceed at this time.

FY27 guidance is group revenue of $385 million to $415 million, an EBITDA Margin of 31.5% to 33.5%, group NPAT of $5 million to $20 million, Capital Expenditure of $45 million to $55 million and international operating cash outflow of $55 million to $65 million.

In the United Kingdom, PEXA delivered NatWest’s digital remortgage capability ahead of schedule and is working towards launching sale and purchase capability, while UK remortgage market penetration declined by 1.2 percentage points. The group notes cost efficiency initiatives and a moderate recovery in UK activity following Bank of England rate cuts, and that it completed the sale of its Digital Solutions businesses, with the exit largely driving the Impairment charges in statutory results.

Growth Catalysts and Critical Operating Risks

Growth catalysts identified include UK adoption with NatWest, PEXA Clear, the New Zealand pilot, cost efficiency initiatives and a stronger Balance Sheet with reduced leverage.

Operating risks include the proposed 20% cut to regulated revenue from FY28, which is described as a draft, FY27 guidance for a lower EBITDA margin (31.5% to 33.5%, compared with 37.3%) and a lower NPAT range of $5 million to $20 million, compared with $26.3 million in FY26. International operating cash outflow of $55 million to $65 million continues in FY27. Macroeconomic uncertainty, property tax changes and UK market conditions are further variables, and guidance is subject to risks and uncertainties beyond the group’s control.

Where Things Stand

PEXA reports higher revenue, EBITDA and profit in FY26, alongside lower FY27 guidance and a pending IPART final report, while its shares remain far below levels of a year ago. Reference points ahead include the IPART final report due by 30 September 2026.