Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR), an integrated property group that develops, owns and manages office, industrial, retail and residential assets, has recorded a decline in its security price over the past year despite higher earnings. Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) securities were priced at $1.785, up 1.42% in today’s session, and are down 23.06% over the past year. The group released its full-year results for the year ended 30 June 2026 (FY26) on 19 August 2026.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate index [XRE] (INDEXASX: XRE) stood at 3,202.90, up 1.11% (+35.20 points) in today’s session as of 6 Oct, 4:45 pm, and is down nearly 22% over the past year.

Business Model and Operational Footprint

Mirvac operates three areas. Investment owns office, industrial, retail and living Assets and earns rent. Development delivers residential lots, apartments and commercial and mixed-use projects. Funds manages third-party Capital through vehicles including the $3 billion Mirvac Industrial Venture (MIV), the $2 billion LIV Mirvac Fund and the Mirvac Wholesale Office Fund (MWOF). Third-party capital under management rose to more than $18 billion.

During FY26 the group sold about $500 million of assets and completed about $2 billion of capital partnering initiatives. MIV acquired Stage 2 at SEED, Badgerys Creek, in Partnership with Australian Retirement Trust (ART), LIV Mirvac Fund secured ART as a new capital partner, MWOF raised the equivalent of about $630 million of Equity since April 2025, and a new retail venture was launched with a 50% sell-down of East Village in Sydney.

Sector Dynamics

Diversified property groups are exposed to residential demand, interest rates, construction costs and investor appetite for office, industrial and living assets. Mirvac notes some moderation in residential markets, while industrial and living assets have recorded valuation growth. Borrowing costs and hedging profiles influence earnings, with Mirvac reporting an average borrowing cost of 5.7%, up from 5.4%.

Mirvac’s 23.06% one-year decline compares with a fall of nearly 22% for the S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate index, and with declines of 33.07% for Stockland (ASX:SGP) and 23.01% for Goodman Group (ASX:GMG). Mirvac is up 1.42% today at $1.785, against a 1.11% rise for the index.

Relative to the index, Mirvac Group’s one-year decline of 23.06% is about 1.1 percentage points larger than the index’s decline of nearly 22%, while its move today is up 1.42% against the index’s 1.11% rise.

FY26 Results Release

Operating profit after tax was $508 million, up 7%, and operating Earnings per stapled security were 12.9 cents, compared with 12.0 cents. Statutory profit was $677 million, compared with $68 million. The distribution was $376 million, or 9.5 cents per stapled security, up 6%. Net tangible assets were $2.33 per security, up from $2.26. Headline gearing fell to 24.1% from 27.6%, with look-through gearing of 27.2%.

Development EBIT rose 52%. The group settled 2,130 residential lots, in line with guidance, and sales rose 15% to 2,425 lots. Residential margins were 24%, excluding impaired lots, or 20% including them. Investment EBIT was $602 million, unchanged, supported by like-for-like growth of 5.3% and new income from completions, offset by $1.1 billion of non-core disposals over two years. Occupancy was 98%, leasing spreads were 33.7% in industrial, 12.9% in land lease, 5.7% in retail and 4.0% in build to rent, and the portfolio valuation uplift was $253 million. Funds EBIT was $36 million, compared with $33 million.

Liquidity was about $1.6 billion, weighted average Debt Maturity was 4.4 years, debt was 66% hedged and ratings were A-/A3 from Fitch and Moody’s. The group announced an on-market buy-back of up to $200 million. For FY27, guidance is operating earnings per stapled security of 13.2 to 13.4 cents, 2,800 to 3,100 residential lot settlements and a weighted average cost of debt of about 5.7%.

Growth Catalysts and Critical Operating Risks

Growth catalysts identified include about $130 million of new investment income from committed and recently completed developments, first settlements at Everdene in Sydney and Darling in Perth in the first half of FY27, the recapitalised funds platform and the buy-back programme.

Operating risks include moderation in residential markets, impaired lots that reduce residential margins to 20%, Investment EBIT that was flat year on year, rising average borrowing costs and execution risk across the development pipeline. Funds EBIT is small relative to group earnings. Guidance of 13.2 to 13.4 cents depends on settlement volumes of 2,800 to 3,100 lots, and market conditions can affect valuations and capital partnering outcomes. Statutory profit comparisons with the prior year are affected by valuation and Impairment movements.

Where Things Stand

Mirvac reports higher operating profit, lower gearing and a $200 million buy-back, while its securities remain lower over twelve months. Reference points ahead include first-half FY27 settlements and progress against FY27 guidance.