Key Highlights

  • Cedar Woods remains on track to deliver approximately 15% growth in NPAT in FY27, targeting approximately $75 million, with over 90% of forecast FY27 Revenue settled or presold.
  • Presales exceeded $763 million at 30 September 2026, with approximately $380 million expected to settle in FY27, $316 million in FY28 and $67 million in FY29.
  • 311 settlements were completed in Q1, ahead of budget and tracking toward the FY27 target of 1,100 to 1,200 settlements.
  • The company declared its largest-ever fully franked final FY26 Dividend of 25 cents per share, payable 30 October 2026, and expects record FY27 Earnings to support further substantial distributions.

Cedar Woods Properties Limited (ASX:CWP), a diversified residential and commercial property developer operating across Western Australia, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland, provided its first quarter FY27 operational update on 27 October 2026. The company confirmed it remains on track to deliver NPAT guidance of approximately $75 million, representing approximately 15% growth over the prior year.

The confidence in full-year guidance is underpinned by visibility: over 90% of forecast FY27 revenue was either settled or presold at 30 September 2026. This presales coverage, extending well beyond a single financial year, gives Cedar Woods a level of earnings certainty that distinguishes it from developers more exposed to near-term market conditions.

Presales Remain at Record Levels

Total presales exceeded $763 million at 30 September 2026, broadly in line with the $763 million recorded at the same point in the prior period despite a softer sales environment during the quarter. Of this balance, approximately $380 million is expected to settle in FY27, $316 million in FY28 and a further $67 million in FY29, providing multi-year earnings visibility and a buffer against period-to-period fluctuations in buyer activity.

The company recorded 167 gross sales in the quarter, a 24% decline quarter-on-quarter and a 57% decline on the prior corresponding period. Management attributed the softness to successive RBA cash rate increases, broader cost-of-living pressures, taxation reforms and a lower number of stage releases and reduced Marketing spend during the period. Importantly, sales activity has shown signs of improvement in Q2 to date, with increased marketing activity and new stage releases planned to support sales through the remainder of FY27.

Settlements and Portfolio Activity

The 311 settlements completed in Q1 were ahead of budget and position Cedar Woods well against its FY27 target of 1,100 to 1,200 settlements. Settlements during the quarter spanned multiple projects, including land stages at Ariella, Eglinton Village and Millars Landing in Western Australia and Clara Place in Victoria.

The Douglas Apartments project in Noble Park, Victoria, was completed and settled during the quarter in its entirety, sold in one line to a not-for-profit community housing provider. The company flagged it is actively pursuing additional affordable and social housing opportunities in Victoria. At Smith Works in Williams Landing, Victoria, the first two stages of an office Warehouse development sold out upon release, with price growth achieved between Stage 1 and Stage 2.

Acquisition Strategy and Balance Sheet

During the quarter, Cedar Woods settled the $15.55 million Acquisition of land adjoining its Bushmead estate in Western Australia, enabling an additional 161 residential lots to be added to the project pipeline. A number of further acquisition opportunities are under negotiation or in formal due diligence, with softer market conditions presenting pricing opportunities.

The Balance Sheet retains meaningful capacity. Corporate finance facilities of $330 million are in place, with 80% on three-year tenure and 20% on five-year tenure, providing funding security and flexibility to pursue acquisitions without near-term refinancing pressure.

Pipeline and Development Outlook

Cedar Woods' development pipeline encompasses approximately 9,600 lots, homes and offices across four states. Two significant apartment projects are progressing toward FY28 settlement: Elegan at Glenside in South Australia and Incontro at Subiaco in Western Australia, both largely sold and expected to complete and settle in Q1 FY28.

The company's FY26 final dividend of 25 cents per share, fully franked, is the largest in Cedar Woods' history. Management expects record FY27 earnings to support further substantial dividend distributions, representing a meaningful Yield return for shareholders.

Sector Context

The Australian residential property market faces a familiar tension between structural undersupply and cyclical Demand pressure. The housing shortfall, particularly in major metropolitan areas, supports medium-term demand for new dwellings. Cedar Woods' multi-state Diversification across WA, Victoria, SA and Queensland reduces concentration risk relative to single-market developers, while the mix of land estates, apartments and commercial Assets provides earnings diversification.

Risks

The principal risks facing CWP include a further deterioration in buyer activity driven by additional Interest Rate increases, worsening consumer confidence or expanded taxation reform. Construction cost pressures and labour availability in the residential sector remain industrywide concerns. The 57% decline in gross sales versus the prior corresponding period, while partially explained by lower stage releases and marketing spend, reflects a market that has moderated materially, and a prolonged period of subdued sales could erode the presales buffer over time.

What to Watch Next

The key metrics to monitor in Q2 FY27 are the recovery in gross sales following increased marketing activity and new stage releases, and the settlement rate against the 1,100–1,200 target. Progress on new acquisitions and any update on the Elegan and Incontro apartment projects ahead of their anticipated Q1 FY28 settlements will also be closely watched. The FY27 full-year result will represent an important test of the 15% NPAT growth guidance.