Key Highlights

• Probable Ore Reserves are 110.9 million tonnes at 1.34 g/t for 4.8 million ounces, with no Proved Reserves.

• Indicated Resources are 83.7 million tonnes at 1.54 g/t for 4.1 million ounces, plus Inferred Resources of 19.9 million tonnes at 2.16 g/t for 1.4 million ounces.

• At Kiniéro, the resource price moved from US$2,200 to US$2,600 per ounce and the reserve price from US$1,800 to US$2,200.

• At Kiniéro, Exploitation Permit applications for Mansounia, which covers about 50% of the licence area, are pending, and Mansounia Central and part of Sabali South could be affected.

What does PDI Gold Limited's (ASX:PDI) latest resource and reserve update say about its plan to become a larger West African gold producer? On 28 September 2026 the company (ASX and TSX: PDI), formerly Predictive Discovery, released estimates as at 30 June 2026 showing total Mineral Resources of about 10.1 million ounces of gold and Probable Ore Reserves of 4.8 million ounces. The numbers are the first to combine its original Bankan project in Guinea with Assets acquired through the Merger with Robex Resources Inc., and they underpin a stated target of more than 400,000 ounces of gold a year from Guinea by 2029, provided Bankan reaches production. That condition, tied to a permit still awaiting grant, is the central issue for the story.

The headline estimates

According to the company's ASX announcement, Indicated Resources total 176.0 million tonnes at 1.22 grams per tonne (g/t) gold for 6.9 million ounces, and Inferred Resources total 87.8 million tonnes at 1.14 g/t for 3.2 million ounces. Probable Ore Reserves are 110.9 million tonnes at 1.34 g/t for 4.8 million ounces, with no Proved Reserves. Resources are inclusive of reserves, and the estimates are reported under the JORC Code.

The previous estimates, dated 25 June 2025, predated the merger and covered Bankan only. The announcement reconciles the change. The Robex Acquisition added 3,991 thousand ounces of resources and 1,536 thousand ounces of reserves. Depletion removed 260 thousand and 199 thousand ounces respectively, model updates added 293 thousand and 199 thousand ounces, economic factors added 527 thousand and 278 thousand ounces, and stockpile changes added 25 thousand ounces to each. Most of the growth is therefore acquired rather than discovered.

Asset by asset

Bankan (Guinea). Indicated Resources are 83.7 million tonnes at 1.54 g/t for 4.1 million ounces, plus Inferred Resources of 19.9 million tonnes at 2.16 g/t for 1.4 million ounces. Probable Reserves are 51.6 million tonnes at 1.78 g/t for about 3.0 million ounces, covering open pit and underground mining. The estimate is unchanged from the June 2025 Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), with no depletion because Mining has not started. The company expects production of about 250,000 ounces per year over more than 12 years.

Kiniéro (Guinea). Indicated Resources are 80.3 million tonnes at 0.96 g/t for 2.5 million ounces, with 66.0 million tonnes at 0.85 g/t for 1.8 million ounces Inferred. Probable Reserves are 55.6 million tonnes at 0.99 g/t for about 1.8 million ounces, up about 25% from the November 2024 estimate. Production started in late 2025.

Nampala (Mali). Resources are small, with Indicated Resources of 12.0 million tonnes at 0.67 g/t for 0.3 million ounces. Probable Reserves are 3.7 million tonnes at 0.54 g/t. The text gives 0.06 million ounces of reserves while the table shows 0.1 million. The mine has operated since 2017 and has a remaining life of about 1.9 years.

Gold price assumptions

The company lifted gold price inputs for the acquired assets. At Kiniéro, the resource price moved from US$2,200 to US$2,600 per ounce and the reserve price from US$1,800 to US$2,200. At Nampala, the resource price moved from US$2,200 to US$3,400 and the reserve price from US$1,800 to US$3,000. Higher prices expand the portion of mineralisation classed as economic, so part of the increase reflects price assumptions rather than new metal. The announcement describes the Nampala price as a judgement.

Strategy and management comments

Chief executive Matthew Wilcox described the update as encouraging and said Kiniéro's changes more than replaced depletion. The company plans an aggressive drilling programme at Kiniéro and Bankan to replace depleted ounces and grow the base.

Permitting and jurisdictional risk

This is the section that matters most. The Bankan Exploitation Permit application, submitted on 31 January 2025, is awaiting grant by presidential decree. The announcement states that timing and outcome are outside the company's control and that without the permit, development as currently planned would not be possible. Since Bankan carries the bulk of the reserves and the growth narrative, this is a binary-style risk.

Further risks are disclosed. On 26 May 2025, Guinea's Ministry of Mines and Geology announced the revocation of more than 100 exploration permits, including the Argo and Bokoro permits held by PDI, and the company says it has received no formal communication. At Kiniéro, Exploitation Permit applications for Mansounia, which covers about 50% of the licence area, are pending, and Mansounia Central and part of Sabali South could be affected. Parts of Bankan lie in the peripheral zone of the Upper Niger National Park, adding environmental sensitivity. If the Bankan open pit is mined as a smaller pit with an accelerated underground operation, some lower-grade material could be sterilised.

Sector and competitive position

West African gold producers operate where permitting, taxation and security can change quickly, and investors typically apply a discount for that. PDI has one operating mine (Kiniéro), one short-life mine (Nampala) and one large development project.

What to monitor

- Bankan permit: any presidential decree and its conditions.

- Kiniéro performance: operating results since production began in late 2025, and drilling to extend reserves.

- Revoked permits: any clarity on Argo and Bokoro.

PDI's update shows a larger asset base, but its value depends on permits and execution rather than on ounces alone.