Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Growth Prospects: Opportunities and Risks to Watch

Sonal Goyal

20 October 2026 05:33 PM AEDT

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Growth Prospects: Opportunities and Risks to Watch

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Key highlights

Northern Star reported underlying NPAT of A$1.8 billion, up 26%, and underlying EBITDA of A$4.3 billion on 20 August 2026.
The FY26 Dividend was 55 cents per share fully franked, and a A$500 million buy-back was under way.
FY27 guidance is for 1,500koz to 1,650koz of gold at an All-In Sustaining Cost of A$3,050 to A$3,450 per ounce.

Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) released its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026 on 20 August 2026. The announcement covered earnings, dividends, a share buy-back and the commissioning of the KCGM mill expansion, along with FY27 guidance.

About Northern Star Resources

Northern Star is a gold producer with operations in Western Australia, including the KCGM operation at Kalgoorlie, and in Alaska. Its development projects include the Hemi project in the Pilbara.

FY26 Earnings and cash

Reported NPAT was A$1.7 billion, or A$1.17 per share, up 24%. Underlying NPAT was A$1.8 billion, or A$1.24 per share, up 26%. Underlying EBITDA was A$4.3 billion, while underlying free Cash Flow was A$190 million and cash earnings were A$2.9 billion, up 1%. Cash and bullion totalled A$1.2 billion, and underlying return on Capital employed was 13.4%.

Dividends and buy-back

The FY26 dividend was 55 cents per share fully franked, at the upper end of the dividend policy range, including a final dividend of 30 cents. A A$500 million on-market buy-back started in April, and A$129 million had been completed, equal to 6,318,488 shares. The company has returned A$3.3 billion in cumulative capital management to date.

FY27 guidance and KCGM

FY27 group gold production is guided to 1,500koz to 1,650koz at an all-in sustaining cost of A$3,050 to A$3,450 per ounce. KCGM production is guided to 550koz to 650koz, reflecting early commissioning and ramp-up, with guidance allowing for variability. Group Capital Investment is guided to A$2,550 million to A$2,935 million, and exploration expenditure to A$230 million to A$250 million.

The company said commissioning of the KCGM mill expansion is under way and expected to deliver greater operational consistency and a lower cost base.

Risks to consider

Underlying free cash flow of A$190 million was low relative to earnings, reflecting heavy capital investment. FY27 capital investment guidance is A$2,550 million to A$2,935 million, so cash flow depends on delivery of the KCGM ramp-up.

The KCGM guidance allows for variability while operating performance is established, and ramp-up delays could affect production and costs. Gold price movements and Hemi development risk apply as well.

Catalysts to watch

Items to watch include KCGM commissioning and ramp-up against 550koz to 650koz of guidance, group production of 1,500koz to 1,650koz, the progress of the A$500 million buy-back, the Hemi project, and capital expenditure.

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