Key Highlights

• Group production was 47.6 thousand tonnes of copper equivalent in the June 2026 quarter, up 38%, and 154.2 thousand tonnes for FY26, within guidance.

• In the fourth quarter, Motheo's copper-equivalent production rose 65%, helped by the higher-grade A4 open pit reaching commercial production, and mill throughput hit a record 7.1 million tonnes a year rate.

• At MATSA, contained metal volumes rose 22% in the quarter and the site again achieved a record annualised processing rate.

• Regional exploration spending in the fourth quarter was $7 million and near-mine drilling was $5 million.

How did Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) recover from a difficult start to the year to meet its FY26 production guidance? The June 2026 quarterly update, summarised on 23 July 2026, shows a record fourth quarter: group copper-equivalent production rose 38% to 47.6 thousand tonnes, taking FY26 output to 154.2 thousand tonnes, within guidance. The result is a useful test of whether the company's two operations, Motheo in Botswana and MATSA in Spain, are now running at the rates management needs.

A limitation applies throughout.

The June quarter and FY26

Group production was 47.6 thousand tonnes of copper equivalent in the June 2026 quarter, up 38%, and 154.2 thousand tonnes for FY26, within guidance. Group sales Revenue in the quarter was a record $574 million, and underlying EBITDA for the quarter was $343 million. FY26 underlying EBITDA is expected to total $867 million, an expectation rather than the audited result.

At 30 June 2026 the company had net cash of $353 million, compared with net Debt of $123 million at 30 June 2025.

CEO Brendan Harris said the team comfortably achieved annual production guidance after what he called a somewhat challenging start to the year. Together, the two points suggest an encouraging finish rather than a steady year.

Motheo, Botswana

In the fourth quarter, Motheo's copper-equivalent production rose 65%, helped by the higher-grade A4 open pit reaching commercial production, and mill throughput hit a record 7.1 million tonnes a year rate. Motheo is a copper operation, and its output depends on mined grade, mill throughput and recoveries.

The step up in grade is the main point. Higher-grade ore means more copper per tonne processed, so output and unit costs can improve even without a larger plant.

MATSA, Spain

At MATSA, contained metal volumes rose 22% in the quarter and the site again achieved a record annualised processing rate. The summary also referred to record throughput with cost reductions, without giving figures.

Because copper equivalent combines metals, changes in zinc or lead prices can change reported equivalent tonnes without changing physical output. Readers comparing years should check the metal-by-metal data.

FY27 guidance and spending

FY27 group production guidance is 150,000 to 166,000 tonnes of copper equivalent. Operating unit costs are expected to rise only incrementally at both operations, without numerical guidance. Capital Investment is expected to increase to accelerate exploration and development, particularly in South Australia and Botswana, and more detailed guidance will come with the full-year results.

Regional exploration spending in the fourth quarter was $7 million and near-mine drilling was $5 million. At the Kalkaroo copper-gold project in South Australia, initial work began with an 80-person site camp and a pre-feasibility drilling programme. Large-scale solar facilities are under construction at both MATSA and Motheo.

Sector and competitive position

Sandfire is a mid-sized copper producer with Assets in two jurisdictions, giving geographic Diversification and also exposure to different regulatory and cost environments. Copper is widely seen as supported by electrification demand, which is general industry context and not a company disclosure. Competitors range from large diversified miners to other mid-tier producers, and a differentiator is cost position and growth beyond existing mines.

Risks

- Operational consistency: the year began poorly and finished encouragingly, so sustaining record rates is the test.

- Copper, zinc and lead prices drive revenue, and by-product exposure at MATSA complicates the picture.

- Cost growth: incremental increases are guided, and Inflation or weather can exceed them.

- Rising capital spending on Kalkaroo, Botswana and exploration may reduce free cash flow.

- Weather and logistics: weather delays were cited earlier in the year.

- Jurisdictional and permitting risk in Spain, Botswana and South Australia, including for Kalkaroo's development path.

What to watch next

The September 2026 quarterly report, if not yet released, and the full-year results will provide detailed FY27 guidance, unit costs and capital plans. Indicators include Motheo's grade and throughput, MATSA's processing rates and costs, net cash, and progress on Kalkaroo.

Sandfire has shown it can post record production and move to net cash. Whether it can hold that run rate through FY27 while spending more on growth is the point to follow.