Highlights

  • Consensus rating of Hold from 2 analysts: 0 Buy or equivalent, 1 Hold, 1 Sell or equivalent.
  • Mean price target of A$4.52 against a share price of A$5.18 on 8 October 2026, an implied downside of 12.7%.
  • Analyst targets range from A$3.80 to A$5.24.
  • Statutory net profit after tax was $100.0 million, down 25% from $133.7 million, and underlying NPAT was $106.3 million, down 16% from $126.1 million.

Helia Group (ASX:HLI) carries a consensus analyst rating of Hold. Of the 2 analyst recommendations recorded, 0 are Buy or equivalent, 1 is Hold and 1 is Sell or equivalent. The mean price target is A$4.52, with targets ranging from A$3.80 to A$5.24, against a current share price of A$5.18 (8 October 2026). Helia Group Limited is an Australian lenders Mortgage insurer that supports lenders and home buyers in the Australian home lending market.

Company name

Helia Group

Ticker

(ASX:HLI)

Exchange

ASX (Australian Securities Exchange)

Current share price

A$5.18

Price date

8 October 2026

Number of analysts

2

Rating consensus

Hold

Consensus price target (mean)

A$4.52

Highest target

A$5.24

Lowest target

A$3.80

Implied upside/downside to mean target

Implied downside of 12.7%

Latest developments

Helia Group (ASX:HLI) reported its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 (1H26) on 11 August 2026. Statutory net profit after tax was $100.0 million, down 25% from $133.7 million, and underlying NPAT was $106.3 million, down 16% from $126.1 million. Statutory Diluted Earnings per Share were 36.2 cents, compared with 48.7 cents, and underlying diluted EPS were 38.5 cents, compared with 46.0 cents. Annualised underlying Return on Equity was 22.2%, down 180 basis points, and net tangible assets per share were $4.94, compared with $5.35.

The Board declared a fully franked interim ordinary Dividend of 16.0 cents per share, unchanged, and an unfranked interim Special Dividend of 27.0 cents per share, also unchanged. The company said the profit benefited from negative total claims, while the decline against the prior corresponding period reflected a larger claims benefit and large Investment gains in that period.

On the operating environment, the company noted that the RBA raised the cash rate target to 4.35% in 1H26 through three consecutive 25 basis point increases, that the Unemployment rate rose to 4.4% and that national dwelling values rose 1.2% in 1H26. The mortgage market grew 25% on the prior corresponding period in the first quarter, but the lenders mortgage insurance market's gross Written Premium contracted 14%, due to a combination of the Government 5% Deposit Scheme and lender self-insurance.

Helia renewed three exclusive customers in 1H26, including ING Bank (Australia), which accounted for 22% of 1H26 gross written premium, and said it is on track to achieve a $12 million reduction in recurring expenditure by the end of FY26. It targets a stable fully franked ordinary dividend and continues to explore Options to return excess capital.

Risks and what to watch

Profit fell against the prior corresponding period, and the company describes mortgage market conditions as challenging for lenders mortgage insurance new business, with market gross written premium down 14%. A large customer, ING, accounted for 22% of gross written premium. The company points to federal tax changes and a slowing property market as headwinds. The special dividend is unfranked and its continuation is not guaranteed.

Next milestones

Items to watch include payment of the 16.0 cent ordinary and 27.0 cent special interim dividends, claims experience, lenders mortgage insurance market volumes, the $12 million expenditure reduction target, and any further Capital return.