Highlights

  • Consensus rating of Hold from 14 analysts: 4 Buy or equivalent, 10 Hold, 0 Sell or equivalent.
  • Mean price target of A$6.28 against a share price of A$5.60 on 8 October 2026, an implied upside of 12.1%.
  • Analyst targets range from A$5.50 to A$7.30.
  • Earnings before interest, tax, SGARA and material items (EBITS) were $492.3 million, ahead of its $480 million to $490 million guidance range and down 36.1% on the prior corresponding period.

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) carries a consensus analyst rating of Hold. Of the 14 analyst recommendations recorded, 4 are Buy or equivalent, 10 are Hold and 0 are Sell or equivalent. The mean price target is A$6.28, with targets ranging from A$5.50 to A$7.30, against a current share price of A$5.60 (8 October 2026). Treasury Wine Estates Limited is a global wine company whose portfolio includes Penfolds, Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective brands.

Company name

Treasury Wine Estates

Ticker

(ASX:TWE)

Exchange

ASX (Australian Securities Exchange)

Current share price

A$5.60

Price date

8 October 2026

Number of analysts

14

Rating consensus

Hold

Consensus price target (mean)

A$6.28

Highest target

A$7.30

Lowest target

A$5.50

Implied upside/downside to mean target

Implied upside of 12.1%

Latest developments

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) released its fiscal 2026 (F26) results on 13 August 2026. Earnings before interest, tax, SGARA and material items (EBITS) were $492.3 million, ahead of its $480 million to $490 million guidance range and down 36.1% on the prior corresponding period. Net sales Revenue was $2,561.0 million, down 12.8%, Gross Profit Margin was 45.7% and EBITS margin was 19.2%. Net profit after tax before material items and SGARA was $275.3 million, down 41.5%, with Earnings Per Share of 34.1 cents. The statutory net loss after tax was $1,078.7 million, reflecting post-tax material items of $1,308.7 million, driven by non-cash Impairment of US-based assets, including an incremental $558.4 million in the second half, and a further impairment of brands.

By division, Penfolds net sales revenue was $998.3 million, down 7.0%, Treasury Americas was $575.0 million, down 21.2%, and Treasury Collective was $987.7 million, down 12.9%. Penfolds depletions rose globally, led by China up 34.7%, Asia excluding China up 18.1% and Australia up 5.7%, and Treasury Americas depletions rose 4.2%. Return on Capital employed was 7.9%, down 4.0 percentage points.

Leverage of 2.8 times is expected to be the peak ahead of a return to a target below 2.0 times by the end of F28. The TWE Ascent transformation program is expected to move to a regional operating model on 1 October 2026, with a $100 million annual cost reduction target to be fully realised by F29 and about $40 million of benefit expected in F27. A strategic and operational review in the Americas is under way with advisors appointed, and the company will reduce US vintage makes from 2026.

For F27, TWE expects EBITS at least equivalent to F26, weighted to the second half at about 55%, driven by customer inventory Rebalancing and the sell-through of repurchased RNDC inventory at nil margin in the US.

Risks and what to watch

EBITS fell 36.1% and the statutory result was a $1,078.7 million loss because of impairments of US Assets and brands. The company cites moderated category trends, Brand and channel health initiatives and cycling of elevated prior-year shipments. Leverage of 2.8 times is described as the peak, and the Americas review covers the brand portfolio, operating model and asset base with no outcome announced. F27 earnings are weighted to the second half and depend on inventory rebalancing in China and the US.

Next milestones

Items to watch include the move to the regional operating model on 1 October 2026, results of the Americas strategic review, progress on customer inventory rebalancing in China and the US, deleveraging toward the target below 2.0 times by the end of F28, and delivery of the F27 EBITS outlook.