TP ICAP Group PLC

 This report is an updated version of the report published on 10 November 2025 at 08:29 AM, GMT

Kalkine’s Global Tariff Report provides fully independent analysis and data-driven analysis of major global sectors affected by tariff changes, evaluating the implications these shifts may have on equity valuations across those industries. The report concentrates on trade-sensitive sectors that typically experience heightened investor scrutiny during periods of tariff uncertainty. It also identifies defensive and countercyclical segments that demonstrate relative resilience or may even outperform, amid disruptions to global trade flows.

As illustrated in the table below, several key sectors in different countries are directly impacted by the recent tariff announcement from President Trump.

Source – White House, Analysis by Kalkine Group as on 10 November 2025

Latest Key Developments (as of 10 November 2025) 

1. US-China Trade Deal Reached: On November 1, President Trump announced a landmark economic agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping, averting a full escalation in the trade war and focusing on rebalancing bilateral trade relations.

1. Fentanyl Tariffs Reduced: Tariffs on Chinese imports linked to fentanyl production will drop from 20% to 10%, effective November 10, 2025, in exchange for China's commitments to curb chemical exports and fentanyl flows to North America.

1. Reciprocal Tariffs on China Paused: The US will suspend heightened "reciprocal" tariffs on Chinese goods for another year, extending the pause until November 10, 2026, to allow for ongoing negotiations.

1. Section 301 Exclusions Extended: Certain tariff exclusions under Section 301, set to expire on November 29, 2025, have been extended to November 10, 2026, providing relief for affected US importers.

1. China Lifts Retaliatory Measures: In response, China will suspend all retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4, 2025, and issue a general license effectively removing export controls on rare earth metals imposed in April and October 2022.

1. 100% Tariff Threat Averted: Trump's October 10 announcement of a potential 100% tariff on all Chinese exports, set for November 1, has been halted as part of the deal, following months of brinkmanship over rare earth restrictions.

1. Canada Tariffs Increased: Trump raised tariffs on Canadian imports by 10% in retaliation for an anti-tariff ad campaign by Ontario, straining US-Canada relations despite the broader North American trade context. 

1. US-India Tariff: As of October 2025, the US-India tariff stalemate persists, with 50% US duties on Indian textiles, gems, and auto parts unchanged, while India holds its tariffs on American goods. The fallout has triggered sharp market volatility, slashing turnover in export sectors like textiles, leather, and gems by up to 50% and squeezing auto margins amid weak demand. Pharma, shielded by exemptions and rising US orders, gained over 3%, while IT and FMCG sectors remain stable, drawing steady investor confidence. 

The UK closed for 3 months to August 2025 with a trade deficit of GBP ~5.20 bn. Total exports reached GBP ~231.50 billion, while imports stood at GBP ~236.70 billion.

Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd., Data Source: REFINITIV, Analysis: Kalkine Group

Amid elevated Market Volatility and Tariff pressures, TP ICAP Group PLC (LSE: TCAP) stands out as our defensive pick within the Financials sector, supported by rigorous fundamental and technical research. 

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamental Insights

TP ICAP Group PLC

TP ICAP Group PLC (LSE: TCAP) is a company on the FTSE 250 that builds platforms and provides data for financial markets. Its main job is to bring buyers and sellers together in areas like stocks, bonds, oil, and gas. It does this through its different business units: Global Broking, Energy & Commodities, Liquidnet, and Parameta Solutions.

Kalkine’s Global Tariff Report covers the Investment Highlights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, and Recent Business Updates along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

The top 10 shareholders together form ~40.85% of the total shareholding. BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. and Columbia Threadneedle Investments (US) hold a maximum stake in the company at ~5.60% and ~5.03%, respectively.

Section 2: Business Updates and Financial Highlights

Section 3: Key Risks, Company Outlook:

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary:

TCAP Daily Technical Chart, Source - TradingView

4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: P/E Multiple Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative)

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is 10 November 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level which the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and or REFINITIV. Typically, both sources (LSE and or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 6: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.