NIKE Inc

Kalkine’s Global Tariff Report provides fully independent analysis and data-driven analysis of major global sectors affected by tariff changes, evaluating the implications these shifts may have on equity valuations across those industries. The report concentrates on trade-sensitive sectors that typically experience heightened investor scrutiny during periods of tariff uncertainty. It also identifies defensive and countercyclical segments that demonstrate relative resilience or may even outperform, amid disruptions to global trade flows.

As illustrated in the table below, several key sectors in different countries are directly impacted by the recent tariff announcement from President Trump.

Latest Updates on Global Tariffs by Trump’s Administration

Key Developments (August 04th, 2025)  

Canada:

• President Trump has threatened a ~35% tariff on many Canadian imports starting August 1, up from the current ~25% on non‑USMCA goods.
• Trade talks with Canada are suspended, mainly due to disputes over Canada’s digital services tax.
• The looming deadlines have ramped up pressure for a long-term trade agreement before August. 

China:

• A trade framework agreed in Geneva in May temporarily reduced tensions. US tariffs dropped to ~30 - ~55%, while China's tariffs are at ~10%, down from over ~100% previously.
• Commerce Secretary Lutnick has confirmed that the ~55% tariff on Chinese goods remains unchanged for now.
• Meanwhile, there are ongoing concerns about US credibility after frequent policy shifts and unclear long‑term direction. 

European Union:

• On July 27, President Trump and EU Commission President Von der Leyen finalized a new trade agreement introducing a ~15% U.S. tariff on most EU imports, down from previously threatened rates of ~30 - ~50%.
• Some key categories including aircraft, semiconductors, pharma, are under a zero-for-zero clause, meaning no tariffs both ways.
• Steel and aluminum exports from the EU still face ~50% tariffs under previous Trump administration measures.
• As part of the deal, the EU committed to roughly USD ~750 bn in U.S. energy purchases and USD ~600 bn in investments over three years.
• The agreement still requires approval from EU members and lawmakers, and some experts warn the ~15% rate will raise consumer prices and pressure exporters. 

      India:

• As of August 4, 2025, the current India-US tariff scenario involves ongoing negotiations amid recent tariff adjustments. The US has imposed a baseline 10% tariff on Indian goods, with a higher 26% tariff initially announced in April 2025, which was suspended for 90 days and is now under review following legal challenges and court stays.
• Recent developments suggest a potential 25% tariff on India, effective August 7, 2025, unless a trade deal is finalized.
• India is negotiating a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) to reduce tariffs and enhance market access, with agriculture, dairy, and GM crops as non-negotiable sectors.
• Talks are ongoing, with a possible deal targeted for September or October 2025. The situation remains fluid, with India leveraging its diversified economy to mitigate impacts, while the US seeks reciprocal trade benefits.

What are the different types of Tariffs? 

A Snapshot of USA’s Trade Size

In May 2025, the US economy exhibited a persistent trade deficit of USD72.00 billion, driven by total imports of USD351.00 billion outpacing total exports of USD279.00 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in balancing trade amid global economic pressures and recent tariff policies, including a 10% baseline duty and higher tariffs on countries like China (30%) and Vietnam (20%). Goods exports, at USD179.23 billion, underscored strength in manufacturing sectors, while service exports reached USD171.77 billion, highlighting robust demand for US services such as technology and finance. The trade deficit, consistent with prior months, suggests that tariff-driven price increases (e.g., apparel prices projected to rise 27% long-term) may be dampening export competitiveness, particularly for goods facing retaliatory tariffs. However, the service sector’s strong performance mitigates some concerns, supporting economic resilience. The US must navigate these trade dynamics carefully, leveraging domestic production incentives and trade agreements to address the deficit while sustaining export growth in a tariff-heavy environment.

Impact of US Tariffs on Various Sectors

The U.S. economy is currently grappling with significant challenges, including high inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the effects of aggressive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Key sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology are feeling strain, particularly due to their dependence on global supply chains and export markets, with trade policies like tariffs on steel, aluminum, and electronics driving up costs for businesses and consumers alike. Despite these pressures, there’s cautious optimism in some quarters about market stabilization within the next year, though this is tempered by ongoing issues like labor shortages, energy price volatility, and political divisions. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation—still above target levels—have slowed economic growth, raising recession risks, while strategic efforts such as trade agreements and supply chain diversification remain critical to fostering stability and mitigating prolonged uncertainty across these vital sectors.

Why does the US Footwear Segment Industry look Attractive Amid Tariff Concerns?

Amid elevated Market Volatility and Tariff pressures, NIKE Inc. (NYSE: NKE) stands out as our defensive pick within the Travel & Hospitality Industry, supported by rigorous fundamental and technical research

Kalkine’s Global Tariff Report covers the Investment Highlights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the NIKE Inc. (NKE). 

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamental Insights

1.1 Company Overview:

NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is engaged in the designing, marketing and distributing of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories and services for sports and fitness activities. The Company's operating segments include North America; Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA); Greater China; and Asia Pacific & Latin America (APLA). It sells a line of equipment and accessories under the NIKE Brand name, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment and other equipment designed for sports activities.

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, Investment Highlights and Risks

1.3 Top 10 Shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~34.37% of the total shareholding, indicating concentrated holding. The Vanguard Group, Inc. and BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. hold a maximum stake in the company at ~­­­9.48% and ~5.62%, respectively.

1.4 Key Metrics:

NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) exhibited a fluctuating revenue trajectory from 2020 to 2024, with revenue from business activities rising from USD 44,538 million in 2020 to a peak of USD 51,362 million in 2023, before declining to USD 46,309 million in 2024, reflecting a 9.8% drop year-over-year, likely influenced by global economic pressures, currency fluctuations, and strategic "Win Now" actions impacting sales. Gross profit followed a similar pattern, increasing from USD 19,962 million in 2020 to a high of USD 22,887 million in 2023, but contracting to USD 19,790 million in 2024, a 13.5% decrease, while the gross margin declined from 44.82% to 42.73% over the same period, driven by higher discounts, channel mix shifts, and increased inventory obsolescence reserves, suggesting a need for enhanced cost management and product pricing strategies to restore profitability amidst competitive and market challenges.

Section 2: Business Updates and Financial Highlights

2.1 Recent Updates: The below picture gives an overview of the company’s recent activities, such as an announcement regarding dividend distribution.

2.2 Insights into FY2025 Financial Performance:

Section 3: Key Risks, Company Outlook:

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary:

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary:

• NKE has generated a return of approx. 29.66% in past three months. On the other hand, a correction of approx. 2.83% in past six months.
• The stock is around the higher end of its 52-week range of USD90.62 and 52-week low price of USD 52.28. Post the announcement of FY25 revenue results the stock has given a return of almost 19.24%, with the current price broken above an important resistance of USD 65- USD 70.
• The price is currently trading above its long-term (200-day) SMA and its short-term (50-day) SMA, with the current RSI of 54.84.

4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: Price/ Earnings Per Share Multiple Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative) 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on August 04, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and the uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavorable movement in the stock prices.