Mixed Performance in Commodities Market Last Week, One Commodity above Support Level – Aluminium

 Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The metals market posted mixed results last week, as weakening momentum and rising geopolitical tensions kept investors cautious. Precious metals showed modest safe-haven demand, with gold slipping 0.17% and silver declining 1.26%. Industrial metals moved in different directions, with copper gaining 1.24%, lead falling 0.68%, and zinc rising 3.36%, reflecting selective buying interest. The varied performance highlights ongoing uncertainty in the global economic outlook. With key central bank decisions ahead and geopolitical risks still elevated, metals markets are likely to experience continued volatility in the near term as traders remain watchful of further developments.

Natural gas prices rose 7.37% last week amid supply pressures, despite weaker seasonal demand. Crude oil declined 1.13% on worries over trade tensions and OPEC’s production strategy. U.S. sugar gained 1.16%, bucking the broader softness in agriculture. These mixed moves highlight persistent supply-demand imbalances and market sensitivity to economic and geopolitical signals. Traders remain focused on global developments and policy changes that may influence prices in the coming days.

Global commodity prices showed mixed performance last week as markets weighed macroeconomic uncertainty against evolving supply dynamics. Precious metals saw limited upside, with gold and silver consolidating near recent highs amid cautious risk sentiment and shifting rate expectations. Crude oil extended modest gains, supported by ongoing OPEC+ supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, while natural gas prices fell sharply due to oversupply worries. Agricultural commodities traded sideways, reflecting stable demand and favorable weather conditions in key producing regions. Overall, market sentiment remained cautious, with traders closely monitoring upcoming inflation data, central bank policy cues, and global geopolitical developments for further direction.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include an update Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Existing Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Aluminium September Future (LME: CMALU25) for the next 2-4-week duration:

Aluminium September Future (LME: CMALU25)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: September Aluminium futures are showing early signs of a potential reversal, trading above a key horizontal trendline with a bullish candlestick pattern that reflects renewed buying interest. The 21-period Simple Moving Average, which is rising below current prices, acts as near-term support and suggests continued bullish momentum. The RSI at 67.27 reflects positive sentiment and bullish divergence. Growing buyer interest and holding above the support zone may strengthen bullish sentiment. A decisive breakout above immediate resistance could confirm the reversal and open the way for further gains in upcoming sessions.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USD 2850.00 and USD 2910.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Aluminium September Future (LME:CMALU25) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications 

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 21^st July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.