TheS&P 500 was down by 32.31points or 1.62%on Thursday to 1965.99 points. U.S. stocks ended with sharp losses on Thursday, with the S&P 500 suffering its biggest one-day decline since July, as Apple tumbled and the US dollar rose to a four-year high. The S&P has dropped for four of the past five sessions and it closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since Aug 15. That level had previously served as support, and a protracted period underneath it could signal further losses ahead.

Apple Inc suffered one of its biggest daily declines of the year, after the tech giant withdrew an update to its new operation system, which some users complained contained numerous glitches. The stock fell 3.8 percent to $97.87 and was the biggest weight on the S&P, comprising 2.6 points of the index's 32.3 point drop. U.S. data today showed applications for unemployment benefits increased less than forecast last week, while orders for business equipment climbed more than forecast in August. Demand for all durable goods slumped a record 18.2 percent.

 

APPLE Daily Chart (Source – Thomson Reuters)
 
S&P ASX 200was up by 6.4points or 0.12%on Thursday and closed at 5382.2 points. Selling pressure on the financial sector pared back early gains on the Australian sharemarket, as Westpac shares entered correction territory. Westpac was one of the biggest drags on the market, sliding 0.8 per cent to 32.21, as it entered a technical correction, falling more than 10 per cent from its recent highs. 
The spot price for GOLD slipped 0.5 per cent on Thursday, or $US6.34, to $US1210.72 an ounce. Newcrest fell 0.7 per cent to $10.32, while Silver Lake Resources slumped 4.7 per cent to 41¢. Evolution Mining bucked the trend, adding 2.8 per cent to 74.5¢. The Australian dollar was trading at US87.86¢ on Friday, down from US88.01¢ late on Thursday. Iron ore was down a per cent trading at $US78.60 a tonne. The SPI futures index is down 56 points on Friday.

WESTPAC Daily Chart (Source – Thomson Reuters)

The top gainers on ASX 200 were:-

 




Stock of the Day – Southern Cross Media (BUY)

Southern Cross Media Group Limited (SXL), engaged in the creation and broadcasting of content on free to air commercial radio, television (TV) and online media platforms across Australia, is in full swing to be considered for stock consumption in our view. SXL has a tremendous range of media products and services, including its Today Network and Triple M Local Works.

As per the FY14 results, SXL reported revenues of A$640.8m, a fall of 0.3% on prior year revenues of A$642.6m with reported EBITDA of A$179.7m, down 14.8% on prior year EBITDA of A$211.0m. NPAT was down 408.0% to a loss of A$296.0m due to impairment of intangibles and investments, compared to the prior year NPAT of A$96.1m. SXL declared a 3.0cps dividend. The decline in EBITDA reflects SXL’s increased investment in brand-imaging, marketing and promotions in line with the aim to sustain and grow its market share.

Metro radio market share declined from 34.4% to c.33.0%; and Regional Revenue declined 0.7% to $380.1m with 1% EBITDA growth to $120.5m. Regional radio growth was hit by submissive national markets.

The Company expects 1H15 revenue and EBITDA to decline 5-7% and 10-15% respectively vs the pcp. We expect a prolific EPS and FCF CAGR in the coming years. SXL hopes for a 33% plus share in FY15 if they continue to see the existing ratings improvements. The otherwise low single digit growth expected in 1Q15 appears to get a kick-start from The Commonwealth games. Then, Triple M network appears to be a star performer for strengthening and growing the share. Local regional revenues continue to provide an upswing in revenue in 1Q15. Benefits of the debt refinancing are expected to reduce financing cash-flows to $40-42m in FY15f. The FY15f capex of $27-30m, then $24-25m from FY16f onwards is being anticipated. Further, the Company expects a FY15 revenue split of 48%:52% for 1H:2H.



SXL’s Entertainment Platforms (Source - Company Reports)

From challenge standpoint, SXL is facing some operational issues which particularly deal with its metro radio ratings and revenue share risk. We might see further metro revenue loss in 1H15 before the recovering in 2H15 (vs the pcp). Something to ponder upon is also the resignation of two directors associated with Macquarie Group in view of hidden intentions towards their 26% shareholding. Further, key risks to the Company are ad market growth/share, the affiliate fees/agreement, radio talent, debt, and marketing spend to launch new metro radio programming.


SXL Brands (Source - Company Reports)

Nonetheless, favorable comps expected across the metro and regional segments will boost growth in 2H15, as understood from the stable metro ratings with a chance of recovering the metro revenue share. Further, radio segment looks encouraging on a long-term structural basis.

There is a possibility that SXL may be considered as an M&A target (as part of on-going speculations) which would be dependent on implications from TV audience reach rules and/or 2-from-3 media ownership rules. Such a strategy may fall in line with SXL’s belief in the merits of industry consolidation, but at the moment, the talk is only in the air.
It is however prudent to note that SXL shares equal market shares with its competitors, Nova/DMG and ARN/APN. This makes us believe that SXL has full capability to outshine in the near future irrespective of the current topsy-turvy profile.


SXL Brands (Source - Company Reports)

In the same spirit, we note SXL’s decision on initiatives such as a DRP and deferring capex spend (i.e., entering into a DRP Shortfall Placement Agreement to help issue shares to offset up to 100% of dividend distributions) and announcement on the sale of a Sydney property mortal asset, which appear to be rescue operations to improve Company’s net debt position. 


Radio Ratings (Source - Company Reports)

We would also like to bring attention to the key highlights exemplified by SXL’s management in a recent Streetevent - Even with reported revenues being down, the adjusted revenues take into account discontinued operations from last year and were actually up 0.5%, owing to strong local sales results and steadying television revenues. The Company has held costs to a reasonable 3.2% increase given the heavy marketing investments. The tax dispute with the ATO has also been settled providing a spark to SXL’s balance sheet and cash flow certainty. The successful refinance of the syndicated debt facility in 2014 was another catalyst. SXL thus expects that the interest outflows will reduce to between AUD40m to AUD42m in FY15. Planned asset sales are expected to deliver AUD8m to AUD10m in cash in FY15. Net debt is down a further AUD11.8m on December 2013.


SXL Daily Chart (Source - Thomson Reuters)

In terms of performance, various shows of this number one radio brand (nationally), (including the no. 1 breakfast show) are doing ostensibly good. The Company further aims to complete the successful regeneration of the Today brand; optimize capital management; and drive meaningful operational improvements to have solid underlying free cash generation.

Factors that can outplay for SXL entail improved ratings performance for Regional TV, improved revenue share performance in metro radio, and any potential corporate activity in view of potential regulatory changes on broadcast reach cap. A significant turnaround in the ad market, would also be a big game changer.

It is clear that SXL is making efforts to benefit from cost initiatives implemented in FY14 for driving annualized savings in excess of $6m (incremental ~$3m in FY15), as reported by the Company. Given the entire situation in terms of potential growth momentum and deeds of the present reaping fruits in the longer-term for a perkier tomorrow, we put a BUY recommendation for this stock at the current price of $0.99.

---

Disclaimer
The advice given by Kalkine Pty Ltd and provided on this website is general information only and it does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the advice is appropriate to your investment objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it. You should seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) as necessary before acting on any advice. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.
Kalkine.com.au and associated pages are published by Kalkine Pty Ltd ABN 34 154 808 312 (Australian Financial Services License Number 425376).
The information on this website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine Pty Ltd, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. You should make your own enquiries about any investments and we strongly suggest you seek advice before acting upon any recommendation.
Kalkine Pty Ltd has made every effort to ensure the reliability of information contained in its newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice. To the extent permitted by law, Kalkine Pty Ltd excludes all liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this website and any information published (including any indirect or consequential loss, any data loss or data corruption). If the law prohibits this exclusion, Kalkine Pty Ltd hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law to the resupply of services. There may be a product disclosure statement or other offer document for the securities and financial products we write about in Kalkine Reports. You should obtain a copy of the product disclosure statement or offer document before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or product.
The link to our Terms & Conditions has been provided please go through them and also have a read of the Financial Services Guide.