Consumer Stocks Poised to Benefit as Retail Turnover Improves in June 2025

Company Overview: Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) is an ASX-listed entity, which operates through two segments, Agribusiness and Nutrition and Energy. Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV) is an Australia-based company, which operates a number of specialty retail fashion chains within the specialty retail fashion markets in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and Europe. Kalkine’s Market Event Report covers the Investment Summary, Event Summary, Data Insights & Analysis, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Outlook, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Investment Summary

Event Highlights

Data Insights and Analysis

Key Drivers versus Key Challenges

Based on the above data, two ASX stocks have been identified to showcase the momentum.

1) Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) (Recommendation: ‘Speculative Buy’ at AUD 7.430, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-cap: AUD 1.66bn)

Company Overview: GNC is an ASX listed entity, which operates through two segments, Agribusiness and Nutrition and Energy.

6-month ended 31 March 2025 (1HFY25) financial performance: For 1HFY25, the company's revenue from ordinary activities grew by 21% YoY to AUD 4,092.2mn, up from AUD 3,382.9mn in the prior period. This increase was driven by sales growth in both the Agribusiness and Nutrition & Energy segments. The company's underlying EBITDA also saw growth, reaching AUD 202mn in 1HFY25, compared to AUD 164mn in 1HFY24. Consequently, net profit after tax (NPAT) rose by 17.1% YoY, to AUD 58.1mn in 1HFY25 from AUD 49.6mn in the previous corresponding period.

Recent Update: GNC announced that it bought back 81,913 fully paid Class A ordinary shares on the market as of 1 August 2025.

Outlook: GNC has raised its earnings guidance for FY25 to an underlying EBITDA of AUD 285-325mn and underlying NPAT of AUD 65-95mn. The company attributes this expected performance to its disciplined strategy and agile operations. Favourable summer rainfall in Queensland and Northern NSW also supports the potential for an above-average winter crop.

The stock has witnessed correction of ~13.99% in last 9 months, and over the last one year, it has decreased by ~14.76%. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of AUD 6.340 and AUD 9.280, respectively and is currently trading below the 52-week high-low average. GNC was last covered in a report dated ‘16 May 2025’.

2) Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV) (Recommendation: ‘Hold’ at AUD 21.150, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-cap: AUD 3.37bn)

Company Overview: PMV is an Australia-based company, which operates a number of specialty retail fashion chains within the specialty retail fashion markets in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and Europe.

6-month ended 25 January 2025 Financial Year (1HFY25) Financial Performance: PMV's financial performance declined in 1HFY25. Total revenue from continuing activities fell 1.27% YoY to AUD 465.21mn vs AUD 471.18mn in the same period last year. This decline was driven by lower sales in both its Australian and international markets. Net profit attributable to owners dropped to AUD 117.05mn, down from AUD 177.23mn in 1HFY24.

Recent Update: On 4 July 2025, PMV notified that the Century Plaza Investments Pty has decreased its voting power to 40.18% from 42.43% in fully ordinary shares, as on 1 July 2025.

Outlook: With a clean inventory position entering 2HFY25, the company plans to invest in new initiatives to expand its Peter Alexander and Smiggle brands, which continue to engage customers with exciting and innovative products. Premier Retail remains focused on delivering unique and memorable shopping experiences.  

The stock has witnessed a correction of ~10.68% in last 6 months, and over the past 1 year, it decreased by ~13.76%. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of AUD 18.080 and AUD 36.870, respectively, and is currently trading below the 52-week high-low average. PMV was last covered in a report dated ‘18 June 2025’.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an Indicator nor a guarantee of future performance. 

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 4 August 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An ‘Exit’ from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.