Commodities Show Mixed Performance Last Week as Cotton Above 50-Day SMA

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Global commodity markets ended the week on a mixed note as the U.S. and Iran failed to reach a peace agreement over the West Asia conflict, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated. A relatively firm U.S. dollar continued to influence commodity price trends. Gold climbed 1.85%, while silver surged 5.85% amid heightened safe-haven demand. Among base metals, copper rose 4.48%, lead gained 1.31%, and zinc advanced 2.47%, reflecting mixed industrial sentiment. Investors remained cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data for clearer macroeconomic direction.

Natural gas declined 2.21% during the week as comfortable inventory levels and moderate demand expectations continued to pressure prices following recent volatility. Crude oil also slipped 4.92%, with traders assessing the impact of ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and uncertainty surrounding diplomatic talks, despite concerns over potential supply disruptions through key shipping routes. In the agricultural segment, U.S. sugar eased 1.74% amid balanced supply-demand conditions. Overall market sentiment remained cautious as investors monitored geopolitical developments, energy supply risks, and broader global demand trends.

Global commodity markets ended the week on a cautious note as geopolitical tensions in West Asia remained elevated following continued friction between the United States and Iran, with diplomatic progress still limited. A relatively firm U.S. dollar influenced price action across major commodities, particularly precious metals. Industrial metals traded mixed as investors weighed global growth expectations and manufacturing demand trends. Energy markets remained volatile amid concerns over supply flows through key shipping routes in the region. Agricultural commodities witnessed selective movement, while market participants closely tracked upcoming inflation data and broader macroeconomic signals for clearer direction.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include Existing Home Sales, CPI, PPI, Initial Jobless Claims and Retail Sales.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Cotton July Future (ICE: CTN6) for the next 2-4-week duration:

 Cotton July Future (ICE: CTN6)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: Cotton July futures are trading near 84.64 and remain above the 21-day moving average around 80.75 and the 50-day moving average near 74.55, reflecting a constructive near-term trend. Price action continues to show strength after the recent rally, with futures consolidating near higher levels rather than witnessing a sharp reversal. The 14-day RSI, near 70.50, remains elevated, indicating momentum is still supportive, though the market may witness some short-term consolidation after the strong upward movement. Trading volumes have also stayed supportive during the recent advance, suggesting the broader trend remains positive as long as prices continue holding above the key moving averages.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USc 91.00 and USc 95.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Cotton July Future (ICE: CTN6) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Key Risk: Technical indicators are backward-looking and may generate false or lagged signals, particularly during volatile or changing market conditions. Price trends may also be disrupted by fundamental, macroeconomic, or company-specific developments not captured in charts. 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 11^th May 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.