Commodities Show Mixed Momentum; Sugar Defends Support, Offering Bullish Trade Setup

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The metals market showed signs of cooling last week as fading momentum and renewed geopolitical tensions prompted cautious investor behavior. Profit-taking emerged in precious metals, with gold declining 2.90%, while silver posted a marginal gain of 0.06%. In the industrial metals segment, copper advanced 2.55%, zinc surged 5.88%, and lead climbed 2.69%, highlighting a mixed sentiment. The divergence reflects a shift in investor positioning balancing risk aversion with selective buying in cyclical assets. With central bank policy decisions on the horizon and persistent global economic uncertainty, markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term.

Natural gas prices fell 5.32% last week, pressured by supply concerns despite easing seasonal demand. Crude oil declined sharply by 11.27%, reversing its recent rally as easing Middle East tensions and rising inventory levels dampened the outlook. In contrast, U.S. sugar prices edged up 0.84%, defying broader weakness in agricultural commodities. These contrasting movements reflect ongoing supply-demand imbalances and the commodities market’s heightened sensitivity to geopolitical developments and economic indicators, keeping volatility elevated across both energy and agricultural segments. Market participants remain watchful of evolving global conditions and policy cues that may influence future price trends.

Global commodity prices extended their bullish trend last week, underpinned by improving sentiment despite persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. Precious metals hovered near key resistance levels, indicating consolidation as investors reassessed risk appetite. Crude oil continued its upward momentum, driven by hopes of recovery and a tightening supply outlook, while natural gas traded with high volatility within a broad range. Agricultural commodities remained steady, supported by firm demand and favorable sector-specific fundamentals. Overall, markets reflected a cautiously optimistic stance, with participants selectively positioning ahead of key economic data releases and central bank policy signals, keeping a close eye on global developments.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include an update Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Sugar October Future (ICE: SBV5) for the next 2-4-week duration:

Sugar October Future (ICE: SBV5)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: October Sugar futures exhibit bullish undertones, trading above a descending trendline and supported by a bullish candlestick pattern that reflects sustained positive sentiment. The 50-period Simple Moving Average, positioned above the current market price, provides a reliable support base in the short term. The RSI at 45.86 signals stable momentum, with the potential for bullish divergence strengthening the outlook. This setup suggests a constructive near-term trend, where a breakout above immediate resistance levels could trigger a fresh upside. Steady support zones may also encourage healthy consolidation, maintain the broader upward bias and opening room for potential gains ahead.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USc 18.00 and USc 18.50, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Sugar October Future (ICE: SBV5) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 27^th June 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.