Bullish Momentum in Commodities Market Last Week, One Commodity Below Resistance Level – Natural Gas

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Last week, the metals market experienced strong bullish momentum ahead of key macroeconomic developments, leading to a sharp recovery in precious and base metals. Gold surged by 6.89% amid strong demand for safe-haven assets, while silver gained 9.15%, reflecting heightened investor uncertainty. Base metals followed the trend—copper climbed 4.47%, lead edged up 0.47%, and zinc slipped 0.28%—as global economic concerns weighed on market sentiment. The mixed performance across the sector highlights growing caution, with geopolitical tensions and monetary policy uncertainty expected to fuel further volatility in the near term.

Last week, natural gas prices declined by 7.50% amid supply constraints and easing seasonal demand. Crude oil posted a sharp drop of 1.22%, pressured by market uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment. In the agricultural space, U.S. sugar prices slipped 0.63%, aligning with a broader downtrend across soft commodities. These movements highlight the ongoing supply-demand imbalances and increased volatility across energy and agricultural markets. With global economic instability, supply disruptions, and changing consumption patterns, investors remain cautious, and similar fluctuations are likely to continue in the near term.

Global commodity prices rebounded from recent support levels last week, influenced by a mix of economic developments and geopolitical tensions. Precious metals are trading above key support zones, indicating the potential for a bullish reversal if market conditions align. In the energy sector, natural gas continues to exhibit sharp volatility within a broad range, while crude oil shows signs of losing momentum after encountering resistance. Agricultural commodities are steadying near recent lows, buoyed by sector-specific fundamentals. The overall market environment reflects a combination of resilience and caution, with investors closely monitoring evolving risks and opportunities in a shifting global landscape.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include an update OPEC Monthly Report, Initial Jobless Claims, and Building Permits.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Natural Gas June Future (NYMEX: NGM25) for the next 2-4-week duration:

Natural Gas June Future (NYMEX: NGM25)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:  June natural gas futures are trading below a key horizontal resistance level and a descending trendline, signalling potential bearish momentum following recent bearish candlestick formations and a sharp 7.50% decline. A visible support zone on the daily chart suggests the possibility of short covering and a modest recovery. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.83 reflects ongoing bearish pressure, reducing the likelihood of a significant technical rebound. Additionally, the 21-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) now act as near-term resistance. With technical indicators leaning bearish, traders should monitor resistance zones closely, as they may cap further upside and reinforce downward pressure in the near term.

Now the next crucial support levels appear to be at USD 3.32 and USD 3.25, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price analysis and technical indicators analysis, Natural Gas June Future (NYMEX: NGM25) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Sell’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

 Disclaimers

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is April 14, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.