ASX All Ordinaries Index (.AORD) Market Round-Up
Last week, ASX All-Ordinaries Index (.AORD) settled at marginal loss after two consecutive positive weekly close. .AORD settled at 7664.20 with a marginal decline of ~0.09 percent for the week ending July 30, 2021. Notably, Australian indexes are primarily trading in an upward trend getting outer support from the Global indices. Last week, domestic markets gained strength from private sector credit report issued jointly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As per the findings, the total number of new credits issued to housing, personal and businesses rose to 1.6% in June 2021 from 0.2% in May 2021.
Meanwhile, .AORD is trading in a rising channel pattern on a weekly chart and prices are trading near to the upper band of the pattern. As per the technical indicators, prices are still reflecting a golden positive crossover between the 21-period SMA and 50-period SMA indicating a bullish trend. The index broke an all-time high level of 7289.7 level on a weekly chart and prices might be heading towards its next resistance levels i.e. 7979.90 and 8410.67. The upcoming macro events that may impact the market sentiments include an update on Australian Building Approvals and Retail Sales data, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data and US Unemployment Claims released weekly.
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Global Markets Wrap-Up
Wall Street indices took a pause after 11 consecutive weekly highs recorded by the S&P index. Notably, S&P 500 hit its all-time high levels of ~4429.97 and settled at 4395.26 with a weekly loss of ~0.37% while NASDAQ Composite Index settled at 14,672.68 with a decline of ~1.11% for the week ending July 30, 2021. US markets dropped despite of strong US employment claims published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The seasonally adjusted initial US unemployment claims data decreased by 24,000 to 400,000 for the week ending 24th July 2021 against the initial claims at 424,000 in the prior week.
Meanwhile, the Core Private Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Index declined by 0.4% in June 2021, versus 0.5% in May 2021. Having understood the US market performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global news, and based on our technical analysis of ASX All-Ordinaries Index (.AORD) for the upcoming week, now let us have a look at the two ASX-listed stocks from the technical standpoint. Noted below are our recommendations based on generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for AusNet Services Ltd. (ASX: AST) and Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (ASX: API) for the next 2-4 weeks’ duration: -
AusNet Services Ltd.
AusNet Services Ltd. (ASX: AST) is an Australian energy company headquartered in Melbourne. The company’s business segment includes distribution of electricity and gas and also engaged in state-wide electricity transmission network. The summary of stock’s key price indicators is provided below: -
Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)
On the weekly chart, AST stock price recently broke the symmetrical triangle pattern and since the breakout, prices are sustaining above the breakout level. Now the next immediate resistance level appears at AUD 2.130 and in the short-term (2-4 weeks), prices may test the level. An upside above AUD 2.130 level supported by volume may extend buying in the stock till AUD 2.240 level
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Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)
On the weekly chart, RSI is hovering at ~52.87 level indicating positive price momentum. The CMP is trading above the 21 period SMA and trading at par with 50-period SMA which is positive for the stock prices. Volume analysis is also showing increasing trend with increase in prices indicating active buying participation that further supporting our bullish stance for the stock.
Financial Summary:
Summary of the Key Financial Metrics for the past four years for AusNet Services Ltd. is as follows:
General Recommendation:
As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that AusNet Services Ltd. is looking technically well-placed on the chart and we have a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investor’s appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical indicator analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Summary of our recommendation is as follows:
Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.
Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (ASX: API) is a health care equipment & services company. Its Australian segment is engaged in the distribution of pharmaceutical, health, beauty, lifestyle products, etc., while the New Zealand segment deals in manufacturing pharmaceutical medicines and consumer toiletries. Below are the key price indicators for the stock:
Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)
On the weekly chart, API stock price witnessed the breakout of a falling trend line resistance at AUD 1.330 level on July 12, 2021, and prices are trading above the trend line level. Prices are also sustaining above the resistance turned support level i.e. AUD 1.39 which also support the bullish stance. Now, the prices are heading towards its next resistance level that appears to be at AUD 1.655, and the stock may test that level in the short term (2-4 weeks).
Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)
On the weekly chart, the momentum indicator RSI has moved up to ~66.58 levels indicating positive price momentum for the stock. The CMP is trading below the 21-period and 50-period SMA that might provide support to the stock prices. Volumes are also indicating positive signs for the stock prices.
Financial Summary:
Summary of the Key Financial Metrics for the past four years for Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. is as follows:
General Recommendation:
As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. is looking technically well-placed on the chart and we have a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investor’s appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical indicator analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. The summary of our recommendation is as follows:
Upcoming Major Global Economic Events
Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include update on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the ASX All-Ordinaries Index and listed stocks’ prices:
Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.60:1.00), however, returns are generated within 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.
Entry Price: For the given recommendation(s), Entry Price is assumed be at or above a certain level. However, a slight deviation in the ‘Entry Price’ can be considered depending upon the upside potential expected and taking into consideration the Target 1 and trailing stop-loss levels indicated. For example: - An Investor can consider entering the stock at or above a certain range (3%-5%) from the Entry Levels recommended depending upon the potential upside expected and difference from the Target 1 and Trailing-Stop Loss Levels indicated for the stock.
Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the technical analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.
Note 2: How to Read the Charts?
The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.
The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.
The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume and we consider stocks with greater than or equal to 500,000 volumes as more liquid. Liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.
The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.
Technical Indicators Defined: -
Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.
Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.
Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.
Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.
A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. We suggest Investors to Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1. Investors should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1.
The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is August 02, 2021. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.
Abbreviations
CMP: Current Market Price
SMA: Simple Moving Average
AUD: Australian Dollar
RSI: Relative Strength Index
Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.
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