Key Highlights

  • NEXTDC Limited (ASX:NXT) shares traded at $5.73 on 21 October 2026, down 37.64%.
  • NEXTDC revised FY27 net revenue guidance to A$475 million–A$500 million, down from A$615 million–A$640 million.
  • FY27 underlying EBITDA guidance was lowered to A$245 million–A$265 million, with capital expenditure guidance revised to A$4,500 million–A$5,000 million.

NEXTDC Limited (ASX:NXT) shares fell 37.64% to trade at $5.73 during the trading session on 21 October 2026, while the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) stood at 8,809.20, down 7.70 points or 0.087%. On the same day, NEXTDC released an ASX announcement covering delays to power works at its M3 Melbourne data centre, revised FY27 guidance and a liquidity update at 30 September 2026.

About NEXTDC

NEXTDC Limited is a data centre operator. The company's announcement refers to its M3 Melbourne data centre, where customer capacity is contracted, and to its KL1 Kuala Lumpur facility, which was commissioned in May 2026 and means Malaysia is no longer treated as an early-stage market for guidance purposes.

M3 Melbourne power delay

NEXTDC said delays to electricity network works by distributor Jemena Electricity Networks (Vic) Ltd have deferred the next increase in grid supply to M3. Jemena suspended parts of the 66kV line augmentation works in September 2026 and has notified NEXTDC that it does not expect to restart them before February 2027. Jemena attributed the suspension to safety concerns and a lack of site access arising from community and stakeholder opposition, along with the local council, as road authority, not giving consent while further consultation takes place.

On Jemena's current indicative estimate, NEXTDC expects the first increase in grid supply during FY28, with delivery and billing of the dependent contracted capacity following shortly after. Later increases depend on upstream transmission projects at the Brooklyn Terminal Station, and the first of those is now expected later than previously planned. The Victorian Government's planning decision on M3 Stages 6 and 7 is also expected only in 2027, after the state election on 28 November 2026.

Revised FY27 guidance

FY27 net revenue is now expected at A$475 million to A$500 million, compared with the earlier A$615 million to A$640 million. Underlying EBITDA is expected at A$245 million to A$265 million, down from A$385 million to A$410 million. The revised ranges exclude the revenue and attributable EBITDA of the affected M3 customer contracts, including capacity already billing and any potential service level credits. The August guidance included approximately A$140 million of each of net revenue and underlying EBITDA from those contracts.

Capital expenditure guidance was revised to A$4,500 million to A$5,000 million, from A$5,250 million to A$5,750 million. The new range includes about A$230 million of capitalised interest, which the earlier figure did not. NEXTDC said service level credits payable on the affected contracts could reduce underlying EBITDA below the revised range.

Liquidity, covenants and capital review

NEXTDC reported liquidity of A$8,675 million at 30 September 2026, made up of A$1,275 million of cash, A$6,700 million of undrawn senior debt facilities and a committed A$700 million Hybrid Securities B delayed draw series that can be drawn until 15 April 2027. The company said it is in compliance with its financial covenants, with the earliest scheduled debt maturity in December 2029 and a potential put option on its convertible notes on 17 September 2029.

The company is refocusing capital expenditure on near-term contracted customer capacity and eliminating all material discretionary spending. A detailed review of the capital expenditure program has begun, with the outcome due by the Annual General Meeting on 20 November 2026, and the Board will also evaluate capital recycling options, including the potential sale of development sites not needed in the near term.

Sector context

Data centre capacity depends on secure grid supply, and large facilities typically receive additional power in stages that rely on third-party network and transmission works. As NEXTDC's release shows, timing for power upgrades can sit outside an operator's direct control and can affect when contracted capacity is delivered and billed.

Planning approvals for expansions of data centre campuses can also add timing uncertainty, since permit decisions and community consultation processes may move at a different pace to construction.

Risks and uncertainties

NEXTDC identified several uncertainties: the timing and scale of the affected M3 contracts' contribution remains uncertain, the contracts provide for service level credits where capacity is delivered late or not fully powered, and in some circumstances give the customer rights to terminate. The company is still assessing its position under those contracts, including whether force majeure relief is available.

Jemena's works depend on community consultation and approvals, and the timing of the Victorian planning decision on Stages 6 and 7 is uncertain. The revised guidance excludes the affected contracts, so actual outcomes may differ from the ranges provided.

What's next

NEXTDC said it is working with its customer on a revised power ramp and with Jemena to bring forward the delivery of power to M3. It will provide further updates, including at its Annual General Meeting on 20 November 2026, when it also expects to announce the outcome of its capital expenditure review.

Other dates referenced in the release include the commencement of caretaker conventions in Victoria from 3 November 2026 and the state election on 28 November 2026.