Why Is Bitcoin (BTC) 34.6% Below Its USD 128,198 Record?

Vinay Lochav

07 October 2026 10:59 PM AEDT

Why Is Bitcoin (BTC) 34.6% Below Its USD 128,198 Record?

Image Source: Shutterstock

You are reading a free article with opinions that may differ from the recommendation given by Kalkine in its paid research reports. Become a Kalkine member today to get access to our research reports, in-depth technical and fundamental research. Learn more

Start Your Free Trial Now!

Key Highlights

USD 83,828 was roughly where Bitcoin (BTC) traded in the premarket on October 7, 2026, down about 2.0% from USD 86,590 on the morning of October 6, according to published market data.
34.6% below the all-time high is the gap to USD 128,198, the record set on October 6, 2025, a figure from simple arithmetic on two published numbers: record price minus current price, divided by record.
USD 202.6 million was the net inflow into US spot Bitcoin Exchange-traded funds across the first three trading days of October 2026, according to one tracker, a small figure next to earlier outflows.
Bitcoin (BTC) was already near USD 84,000 on September 28, 2026, so the latest decline is a continuation of a stalled recovery, not a sudden break.

Where the Price Stands

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at about USD 83,828 in the premarket on October 7, 2026, down roughly 2.0% from USD 86,590 the previous morning, according to published market data. Last year's record was USD 128,198 on October 6, 2025, exactly one year earlier. Simple arithmetic on those two numbers puts the current price about 34.6% below the peak, a loss of about USD 44,370 per coin. The price is not new territory. On September 28, 2026, Bitcoin slipped below USD 84,000, and in early June 2026 it was hovering near USD 73,000, so the asset has recovered part of an earlier slide but has not regained momentum. We could not verify a five-year drawdown comparison, so none is given.

Fund Flows and Network Activity

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are the main channel for institutional demand. One tracker showed net inflows of USD 202.6 million across the first three trading days of October, led by a USD 189.8 million inflow on October 2, with smaller funds such as the Bitwise and ARK products seeing outflows on October 5. By contrast, another report said these funds lost USD 2.3 billion in May 2026, their weakest month for institutional Demand since late 2025. Flows matter because creations and redemptions require buying or selling the underlying coin. Network metrics such as hash rate and active addresses were not verified for this article and are omitted. ProShares Bitcoin ETF (NYSEARCA:BITO), which tracks futures rather than holding coins, was quoted near USD 11.45.

Risks and Dates to Watch

Bitcoin trades around the clock and tends to react to the same forces as other risk assets: Treasury yields, the dollar and liquidity. The 10-year Treasury Yield was near 5.28% on October 6 after hitting 24-year highs, and the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026. Higher yields raise the appeal of cash-like Assets compared with a coin that pays no income. Volatility is a built-in risk, as a 34.6% fall from the high shows, and prices can move several % in a day. Key dates include the Federal Open Market Committee minutes on October 7 at 2:00 p.m. ET, weekly jobless claims on October 8 and bank Earnings from October 13. Daily Fund Flow data will show whether demand is returning.

Where Things Stand

Bitcoin (BTC) sits about 34.6% below its October 6, 2025 record because high yields, a rate-hiking Federal Reserve and uneven fund demand have cooled the rally. At roughly USD 83,800 premarket, it is above its June level near USD 73,000 but well short of USD 128,198. The next signals are the October 7 minutes, daily fund flows and whether the price holds near USD 84,000 or breaks lower.

FAQs

Q: Why is Bitcoin (BTC) 34.6% below its USD 128,198 record?

A:Higher Treasury yields, a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16, 2026 and weak institutional demand earlier in the year have weighed on the price. The 34.6% figure is simple arithmetic on the record and the premarket price.

Q: When was Bitcoin's record high?

A:Bitcoin reached a record of USD 128,198 on October 6, 2025. That is exactly one year before the October 6 to 7, 2026 window discussed here, when the coin traded near USD 83,800 in the premarket.

Q: Are Bitcoin ETFs seeing inflows?

A:One tracker showed net inflows of USD 202.6 million across the first three trading days of October 2026, but individual days varied and some funds saw outflows. Another report said May 2026 saw USD 2.3 billion in net outflows.

Q: How does a futures-based Bitcoin ETF differ from owning Bitcoin?

A:BITO) holds Bitcoin futures contracts rather than the coin, so its returns can differ from spot Bitcoin because of futures roll costs and fees. It was quoted near USD 11.45 recently.

Download Free Report – Explore 3 Stock Ideas & Industry Insights

Unlock 3 stock ideas and key industry insights in our free report. This information is general in nature and does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is not financial advice.

All investments involve risk—consider independent advice before making any investment decisions.

View 3 Research Reports

Disclaimer:

This article (“Article”) has been prepared by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and its related bodies corporate who are authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and its associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any information/advice provided in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the information is appropriate for your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Memorandum or other offer document (“Offer Document”) for the securities or other financial products referred to in Kalkine articles. You should obtain a copy of the Offer Document and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or financial product.

Kalkine strongly recommends that you seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) before acting on any advice/information in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this Article and on Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the information contained in its articles (including this Article), newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice.

The information in this Article does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products.

Kalkine does not issue, sell or deal in any financial products.

This Article may contain information on past performance of particular investments. Please note past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

To the extent permitted by law, and excluding any dishonesty or gross negligence by Kalkine, Kalkine disclaims and excludes all liability for any direct, indirect, implied, punitive, special, incidental or other consequential loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on this Article, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website without any warranties or representations by Kalkine to you. To the extent the law prohibits or limits this exclusion, Kalkine limits its liability to the resupply of services.

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information.

Employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities may hold interests in the securities or other financial products covered in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

Some of the images/music that may be used in the Article are copyright to their respective owner(s). Kalkine does not claim ownership of any of the pictures displayed/music used in the Article unless stated otherwise. The images/music that may be used in the Article are taken from various sources on the internet, including paid subscriptions or are believed to be in public domain. We have used reasonable efforts to accredit the source wherever it was indicated or was found to be necessary.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website.