Highlights

  • NEXTDC (ASX:NXT) revised FY27 net revenue guidance to A$475 million to A$500 million, from A$615 million to A$640 million.
  • Underlying EBITDA guidance moved to A$245 million to A$265 million after delays to grid supply works at M3 Melbourne.
  • FY27 capex guidance was lowered to A$4,500 million to A$5,000 million, with new development projects placed on hold.
  • Liquidity stood at A$8,675 million at the end of September 2026, and the company reported compliance with covenants.

NEXTDC provides data centre-as-a-service across Australia and Asia, operating facilities supported by a partner ecosystem of carriers, cloud providers and IT service providers.

Company Business

NEXTDC develops, owns and operates data centres in major Australian cities, along with facilities and projects in Kuala Lumpur, Tokyo and Auckland. Customers range from hyperscale cloud providers to enterprises and government agencies, and they contract power capacity measured in megawatts. The business carries a significant property component. During FY26, M3 Melbourne was reclassified as an investment property following the commencement of a long-term hyperscale lease, and the company recorded a A$128.8 million fair value gain on investment properties. Its development pipeline includes S4 Sydney, which has total planned capacity of 365MW, and the M5 Melbourne site, where planning is for up to 1.2GW.

Recent Developments

In late October 2026, ASX:NXT announced that Jemena had suspended parts of the network works required for the next increase in grid supply to M3 Melbourne. Jemena cited safety concerns, limited site access and community and stakeholder opposition, and does not expect works to restart before February 2027. On Jemena's indicative estimate, the next grid supply increase is expected during FY28. As a result, NEXTDC removed the affected M3 contracts from FY27 guidance, which had included about A$140 million each of net revenue and underlying EBITDA. Chief Executive Craig Scroggie said, "We have taken the affected M3 contracts out of FY27 guidance until we can reliably estimate their contribution."

Revised FY27 guidance is net revenue of A$475 million to A$500 million and underlying EBITDA of A$245 million to A$265 million. The company noted that service level credits could push underlying EBITDA below that range. Capex guidance fell to A$4,500 million to A$5,000 million, now including about A$230 million of capitalised interest. All new development projects and land acquisitions are on hold, and the board will evaluate capital recycling, including possible sales of development sites not needed in the near term.

Financial Performance and Sector Context

FY26 results, released in late August 2026, showed net revenue of A$405.0 million and underlying EBITDA of A$248.8 million, both above the guidance ranges set for that year. Total revenue was A$496.5 million, and statutory NPAT was A$82.1 million, which included the investment property fair value gain. Pro forma contracted utilisation reached 740.1MW, billing utilisation was 175.0MW and built capacity was 287.9MW. The pro forma forward order book stood at 565.1MW. Capex for the year was A$3,397 million.

At the end of September 2026, liquidity totalled A$8,675 million, including cash of A$1,275 million, undrawn senior facilities of A$6,700 million and a A$700 million hybrid securities delayed draw series. ASX:NXT reported that it was in compliance with its financial covenants at the end of June 2026 and expects to remain compliant at the end of December 2026. Within the property sector, data centres combine long-term leasing with heavy construction spending and reliance on grid power.

Risks to Consider

The timing of power supply at M3 depends on Jemena and on local council consent, which remain outside NEXTDC's control. The company has stated that its ability to draw the full undrawn facilities may depend on billing profiles, which the M3 delays could affect. Service level credits may reduce earnings further. The planning decision for M3 Stages 6 and 7 is now expected in 2027. Delays to upstream transformer projects at Brooklyn Terminal Station may also affect capacity billing beyond FY28.

What to Watch Next

NEXTDC has scheduled its 2026 AGM for late November 2026 as a hybrid event, where the outcome of the detailed capex review is expected. Investors in ASX:NXT may watch for any decisions on site sales or capital recycling, updates from Jemena on restarting works, progress at S4 Sydney and KL1 Kuala Lumpur, .

Key Insights

NEXTDC entered FY27 with a large contracted pipeline and significant liquidity, but power supply delays at M3 Melbourne have pushed a material portion of expected revenue and earnings into FY28. The company has responded by reducing capex, pausing new projects . The November AGM is set to provide further detail on capital spending plans.