Can Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) Deliver the 9.6% Move Options Traders Are Pricing?

Vinay Lochav

05 November 2026 12:49 AM AEDT

Can Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) Deliver the 9.6% Move Options Traders Are Pricing?

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Key Highlights

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close on November 4, 2026, with a call at 4:45 p.m. ET, and published Options coverage points to a swing of about 9.6%.
Company guidance calls for Revenue of USD 9.7 billion to USD 10.5 billion and adjusted EPS of USD 2.05 to USD 2.25, with consensus near the midpoint at about USD 10.1 billion and USD 2.16.
Apple-related revenue is expected to fall about 50% from the third quarter, and Bernstein estimates it could drop about USD 6 billion in fiscal 2027.
Third-quarter automotive revenue was about USD 1.6 billion, up 61%, and IoT was about USD 1.8 billion, up 9%, together around 40% of chip revenue.

What Is Expected

This is a preview written before results. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) guided revenue of USD 9.7 billion to USD 10.5 billion and adjusted EPS of USD 2.05 to USD 2.25 for the quarter. A preview published before the report puts consensus at roughly USD 10.1 billion to USD 10.15 billion and adjusted EPS of USD 2.16 to USD 2.17, which would be down about 10% and 28% from a year earlier, according to published estimates. One calendar lists EPS of USD 1.46, which looks inconsistent with guidance and is not used here. In the third quarter, revenue was USD 9.95 billion and adjusted EPS was USD 2.21. A report after the close means the first reaction arrives in extended trading, where Volume is thinner and quotes can swing more than in the regular session.

The Apple Question and the Diversification Story

The central debate is Apple. Apple-related revenue is expected to fall about 50% sequentially, and Qualcomm's earlier view that it would Supply roughly 20% of next-generation iPhone modems is expected to be scaled back, per the preview. On the other side, automotive revenue could reach an annualised run rate near USD 7 billion, above a prior USD 6 billion target, and management has said first custom Data Center chip revenue should arrive in the December quarter, alongside an AI infrastructure Partnership with Amazon. Data center Investment could trim chip gross Margin by about 1.5 to 2 points. Licensing revenue is guided at USD 1.2 billion to USD 1.4 billion. Because a new data center Business starts from a small base, investors will look for orders rather than revenue in the near term.

The Slate and the Risks

Several other companies report after the close. Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) has a calendar estimate of USD 0.22. AppLovin (NASDAQ:APP) is listed for 5:00 p.m. ET at USD 3.94. McKesson (NYSE:MCK) is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at USD 10.69. MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) follows at 5:00 p.m. ET with USD 9.41. Calendar estimates are unverified. Allstate and MetLife report on Thursday. Analyst ratings on Qualcomm in the preview stood at 3 Buy, 6 Hold and 2 Sell, with an average target near USD 197. Risks include a weak outlook, handset softness and memory costs. An options swing is not a forecast, and guidance often moves shares more than the quarter itself. Margins in the chip business are expected at a pre-tax 23% to 25%, down from 26%, which is another variable to watch.

Where Things Stand

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) can justify a 9.6% swing, because the debate over Apple modem share and the pace of auto and data center growth is large enough to change fiscal 2027 estimates. The quarter itself is expected to land near the middle of guidance, so the outlook will drive the reaction. Single-source options data suggests traders expect a big move. Watch the December-quarter guidance, Apple commentary, auto growth and the timing of data center revenue. Nothing here is investment advice.

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