Key Insights

The projected fair value for GWA Group is AU$2.82 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of AU$1.98 suggests GWA Group is potentially 30% undervalued The AU$2.26 analyst price target for GWA is 20% less than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of GWA Group Limited (ASX:GWA) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for GWA Group

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:



10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Levered FCF (A$, Millions)  AU$59.0m AU$57.0m AU$58.0m AU$55.9m AU$54.8m AU$54.4m AU$54.5m AU$54.9m AU$55.5m AU$56.3m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -3.62% Est @ -1.91% Est @ -0.71% Est @ 0.13% Est @ 0.71% Est @ 1.12% Est @ 1.41% Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.7%  AU$54.3 AU$48.3 AU$45.2 AU$40.1 AU$36.2 AU$33.1 AU$30.5 AU$28.3 AU$26.3 AU$24.6

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$367m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$56m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (8.7%– 2.1%) = AU$875m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$875m÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)10= AU$381m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU$748m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$2.0, the company appears quite undervalued at a 30% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at GWA Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.314. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for GWA Group

Strength

Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Building market.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For GWA Group, we've put together three relevant factors you should explore:

Risks: For instance, we've identified  1 warning sign for GWA Group that you should be aware of. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for GWA's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.