Last week, you might have seen that BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX:BSL) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to AU$23.04 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of AU$16b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 82% to hit AU$0.19 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering BlueScope Steel are now predicting revenues of AU$16.7b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 898% to AU$1.69. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$16.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.82 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for BlueScope Steel

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$24.87, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic BlueScope Steel analyst has a price target of AU$28.78 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$20.50. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that BlueScope Steel's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 6.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than BlueScope Steel.



The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for BlueScope Steel. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BlueScope Steel going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted  3 warning signs for BlueScope Steel  (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.