Highlights

  • IDP Education shares climb 1.3% after a near 48% drop the previous day.
  • Company forecasts FY25 adjusted operating earnings of AUD115-125 million, below consensus.
  • Year-to-date, IEL shares are down 69.3% compared to ASX200's 4.3% gain.

IDP Education (ASX: IEL) shares rose 1.3% to AUD3.93 on Wednesday, recovering slightly after a steep 48% plunge on Tuesday. This modest rebound followed five consecutive sessions of declines for the education services provider. The rise mirrored gains in the broader ASX200 index (.AXJO), which advanced 0.6%.

On Tuesday, IDP Education issued its forecast for fiscal year 2025 adjusted operating earnings, projecting a range of AUD115 million to AUD125 million (approximately AUD74.28 million to AUD80.74 million USD). This guidance fell short of the consensus estimate of AUD166.3 million, as noted by analysts from E&P Capital.

Morningstar responded to the earnings forecast by reducing IDP’s fair value estimate by 23%, lowering it to AUD17 per share. The research firm attributed the revision to market concerns around weak near-term student volumes. However, Morningstar also pointed to structural trends such as aging populations in key markets and increased demand from emerging economies as potential factors supporting the company’s long-term outlook.

Jefferies noted that student placement volumes for FY25 are approximately 10% below consensus expectations, citing ongoing policy uncertainty which could persist into FY26. The brokerage reiterated its "underperform" rating and maintained a price target of AUD9.50 per share.