Why Housing Lot Sales Matter for Property Developers Cedar Woods (ASX:CWP) and Peet (ASX:PPC) Beyond the S&P/ASX 200

Two Perth-based land developers reported record results on the same August morning, and one of them could leave the ASX before Christmas if a Takeover scheme proceeds. Peet (ASX:PPC) agreed on 26 August 2026 to be acquired by Ingenia Communities, a day after Cedar Woods Properties (ASX:CWP) forecast further profit growth.

That makes housing lot sales worth watching for both. A lot sale is a signed contract to buy a serviced block of land, or a home, which the developer records as Revenue only when it settles. Contracts signed today largely set next year's earnings, which is why each company's presales book tells readers more than its last profit. Neither sits in the S&P/ASX 200, based on iShares S&P/ASX 200 ETF holdings dated 24 September.

The scheme now sitting over Peet

Under the scheme terms Peet published, shareholders would receive A$0.68 cash plus 0.3367 Ingenia stapled securities per share. Using Ingenia's 10-day volume-weighted average price of $4.28, that implied $2.12, or $2.185 including Peet's second-half FY26 Dividend of 6.5 cents.

The Peet board unanimously recommends the scheme, subject to no superior proposal and to independent expert Kroll concluding it is in shareholders' best interests. Conditions include ACCC clearance, court and Shareholder approvals, and a joint venture deed over Peet's Flagstone project in south-east Queensland.

Peet's indicative timetable points to a scheme meeting in early December and implementation in late December 2026. Shareholders could choose more cash or more scrip, with about 32 per cent of total consideration available as cash.

Part of the value is tied to Ingenia's security price, so the implied figure moves with the market. Ingenia has also faced Private Equity interest: it rejected a revised Warburg Pincus proposal on 21 September, one that was conditional on Ingenia not proceeding with Peet. Neither approach was binding.

How each developer turns land into profit

Both companies buy or control large parcels, secure planning approval, install roads and services, then sell lots to home buyers and builders. Cash goes out years before settlement brings it back, so balance sheets and presales matter.

Peet is the larger landholder. It reported a pipeline of more than 26,400 lots across 37 projects, with an estimated end value of $11.5 billion. Some projects are held with joint venture partners or managed for Capital partners, so not every lot is wholly owned.

Cedar Woods runs a smaller, more varied book. It lists more than 9,600 lots, homes and offices across four states, so its pipeline mixes built products with serviced land. Its 2026 Annual General Meeting is set for 5 November in Perth.

What the FY26 numbers show

Both companies use a 30 June year-end, so FY26 means the year to 30 June 2026, and both released results on 25 August.

Peet's FY26 results coverage showed revenue up 3 per cent to $450.2 million and operating profit after tax up 77 per cent to $103.4 million. It sold 2,996 lots, 8 per cent more than in FY25, and settled 2,665. Contracts on hand were $851 million, up 39 per cent, and fully franked dividends totalled 13.0 cents.

Earnings before interest, tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) rose 54 per cent to $162.8 million. Net Debt was $201.3 million and gearing 24.8 per cent. Gearing measures borrowings against the asset base, so a lower figure means less reliance on debt.

Cedar Woods' FY26 results coverage reported net profit after tax up 36 per cent to $65.6 million on revenue of $502.4 million, and Earnings per share of 77.9 cents. Gross sales rose 5 per cent. Record presales reached $830 million at 30 June, which management said covered more than 90 per cent of forecast FY27 revenue. Total FY26 dividends rose 34 per cent to 39.0 cents, fully franked, and gearing was 18 per cent.

The profit lines are not like-for-like. Peet highlights operating profit, which excludes some items in statutory profit, while the Cedar Woods figure is statutory net profit.

Reading the presales books side by side

By our calculation, dividing contracts on hand by FY26 revenue gives Peet cover of about 1.9 times and Cedar Woods about 1.7 times. In plain terms, each already holds signed sales worth more than a full year of current revenue.

The comparison has limits. Peet's contract book may include joint venture and funds-management projects that do not flow wholly into its reported revenue, and settlement timing differs by project. Cedar Woods tied its figure directly to forecast FY27 revenue; the Peet material reviewed for this article did not make an equivalent link.

Payout policies also differ. Dividing dividends by earnings per share, Cedar Woods paid out about half of FY26 earnings (39.0 cents against 77.9 cents), while Peet's 13.0 cents against operating Earnings Per Share of 22.1 cents is about 59 per cent.

Where the two stories diverge

For Cedar Woods, the question is delivery. It is targeting 15 per cent growth in FY27 net profit, supported by its presales and $120 million of available liquidity. Its final dividend of 25.0 cents goes ex on 30 September and is payable on 30 October.

For Peet, day-to-day trading matters less than the deal. Its share price is now tied largely to Ingenia's securities and to the likelihood that the scheme is approved. The offer's reference prices put the implied value at a 47 per cent premium to Peet's Net Tangible Assets (NTA) of $1.49 per share at 30 June, NTA being Book Value excluding intangible assets. Holders taking scrip would own part of Ingenia's land Lease Business instead.

Risks and signposts for land developers

Both businesses depend on buyers securing finance. Peet management pointed to continuing Demand in Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia while remaining alert to improvement in Victoria and New South Wales. A contract is not a settlement, and higher interest rates can lengthen the gap or cause cancellations.

For Peet, the signposts are the independent expert's report, the scheme booklet expected in early November and the December vote. For Cedar Woods, the AGM update and first-half FY27 settlements will show whether its presales convert on schedule.