Stockland (ASX:SGP) expects to settle fewer masterplanned community lots in FY27 than in FY26, a year of record combined residential settlements. Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) expects to settle more residential lots than it did last year. Both S&P/ASX 200 property groups reported on 19 August 2026, and both still forecast higher Earnings per security.

That divergence is the reason to compare them. Housing Demand feeds both groups' profits, but at different points in the cycle and in different proportions, which shapes how sensitive each is to buyer confidence, interest rates and supply.

Two stapled groups, two housing models

Both are stapled groups, meaning a company share and trust unit trade together, and both combine a rent-earning Investment portfolio with development. Both report on a financial year to 30 June, so their FY26 figures cover the same period.

Stockland's housing exposure is dominated by masterplanned communities: large greenfield estates where it sells land lots, mostly to owner-occupiers who then build. It also runs land Lease communities, where residents own their homes but lease the land.

Mirvac's residential Business has historically leaned more on apartments and higher-density projects, alongside masterplanned estates. It also owns a build-to-rent platform and a land lease portfolio, and manages office, industrial and retail property for itself and Capital partners.

Stockland's record year, and a softer outlook

Stockland's FY26 result showed masterplanned settlements up 30 per cent to 8,902 lots and land lease settlements up 48 per cent to 777 homes. Funds from operations (FFO), a measure of recurring earnings, rose 10.4 per cent to $892 million, or 36.9 cents per security.

The chair's letter in the 2026 notice of meetings confirms statutory profit of A$994 million, Net Tangible Assets (NTA) of $4.39 per security, a distribution of 25.2 cents and gearing of 22.7 per cent. Gearing measures net Debt against total assets.

Stockland's results presentation reported 3,824 masterplanned contracts on hand, a 21.2 per cent Operating Margin and 3,181 homes sold to first home buyers. Land lease net sales rose 88 per cent to 1,080 homes, leaving 701 contracts on hand. On the investment side, investment management FFO grew 2.6 per cent to $606 million, with comparable logistics FFO up 8.1 per cent. It also noted that demand moderated in the fourth quarter and that affordability was limiting demand in New South Wales.

For FY27, coverage of the release reported guidance of 7,300 to 8,300 masterplanned settlements at a margin of around 20 per cent, 850 to 950 land lease settlements, FFO of 38.0 to 39.0 cents per security and an unchanged 25.2 cent distribution. Beyond housing, Stockland raised $1.5 billion of third-party capital during FY26 and reported securing around 450MW of power for future data centre projects.

Mirvac's recovery from a weaker base

Mirvac's FY26 results, briefed to the market on 19 August according to its investor centre, showed operating profit up 7 per cent to $508 million, or 12.9 cents per security. It settled 2,130 residential lots and paid distributions of 9.5 cents, up 6 per cent. Statutory profit, which includes property revaluations, recovered to $677 million from $68 million in FY25, and NTA rose to $2.33 per security. The investment portfolio was 98 per cent occupied, with like-for-like income growth of 5.3 per cent.

The results slides show residential gross margin rising to 23.9 per cent from 15 per cent in FY25, residential EBIT up 30 per cent to $233 million, and about $1.5 billion of pre-sales, which are contracts signed before completion. Buyers were split 38 per cent upgraders and rightsizers, 31 per cent investors and 31 per cent first home buyers.

Mirvac guided to FY27 operating earnings of 13.2 to 13.4 cents per security, a 9.9 cent distribution and 2,800 to 3,100 residential settlements. It said about 63 per cent of FY27 settlements were already secured. Its build-to-rent platform has grown to 2,467 units and its land lease portfolio to 8,267 lots, giving it rental housing exposure that sits outside the sales cycle.

How exposed is each to housing? Our comparison

By our calculation, using reported segment figures before corporate costs, interest and tax, Stockland's development FFO of $540 million equalled about 47 per cent of development plus investment management FFO ($540m ÷ $1,146m). Mirvac's development EBIT of $270 million was about 30 per cent of its combined investment, funds and development EBIT ($270m ÷ $908m).

The guidance points in opposite directions on volume. Stockland's midpoints imply about 8,700 combined settlements, roughly 10 per cent below FY26's 9,679, while its FFO midpoint of 38.5 cents is about 4 per cent higher. Mirvac's settlement midpoint of 2,950 is about 38 per cent above FY26, yet its earnings midpoint of 13.3 cents is only about 3 per cent higher.

In plain terms, Stockland is guiding to more profit from fewer, better-margin lots and its investment platform, while Mirvac is relying on higher settlement volumes as its residential margins recover. The measures differ (FFO versus operating profit, EBIT versus FFO), so these ratios indicate direction rather than precise equivalence.

Payout ratios also differ. Stockland distributed about 68 per cent of FY26 FFO (25.2 ÷ 36.9 cents), while Mirvac paid out about 74 per cent of operating earnings (9.5 ÷ 12.9 cents).

Rates, Supply and capital management

Both groups flagged rate uncertainty. Mirvac said uncertainty around interest rates was holding back conversion of enquiries into sales, while Stockland reported moderating demand late in the year. Higher rates would weigh on land and apartment sales and on property valuations.

Balance sheets are comparable: Mirvac's gearing improved to 24.1 per cent from 27.6 per cent, close to Stockland's 22.7 per cent. Mirvac is also buying back up to $200 million of securities on market; its 25 September update showed 64.6 million securities repurchased so far.

Apartment projects carry longer build times and settlement risk, although Mirvac reported defaults of 0.3 per cent. Stockland's masterplanned model depends on greenfield land supply and planning approvals, and on buyers securing finance to build.

Indicators worth tracking

Stockland's Annual General Meeting is scheduled for 19 October 2026. Useful signals for both include quarterly sales and contracts on hand, residential margins against guidance, first home buyer activity, and any shift in Interest Rate expectations. Both remained S&P/ASX 200 constituents after the September 2026 rebalance.