Highlights

  • Consensus rating of Buy from 9 analysts: 5 Buy or equivalent, 3 Hold, 1 Sell or equivalent.
  • Mean price target of A$2.96 against a share price of A$2.39 on 8 October 2026, an implied upside of 23.9%.
  • Analyst targets range from A$2.22 to A$4.00.
  • Net operating profit was $79.1 million, up 8%, statutory net profit was $132 million, up 62%, and operating Earnings per security were 19.60 cents, up 5.7%.

Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) carries a consensus analyst rating of Buy. Of the 9 analyst recommendations recorded, 5 are Buy or equivalent, 3 are Hold and 1 is Sell or equivalent. The mean price target is A$2.96, with targets ranging from A$2.22 to A$4.00, against a current share price of A$2.39 (8 October 2026). Arena REIT is an Australian REIT that owns social infrastructure properties, primarily early learning centres, with a portfolio of 307 properties valued at about $2.0 billion.

Company name

Arena REIT

Ticker

(ASX:ARF)

Exchange

ASX (Australian Securities Exchange)

Current share price

A$2.39

Price date

8 October 2026

Number of analysts

9

Rating consensus

Buy

Consensus price target (mean)

A$2.96

Highest target

A$4.00

Lowest target

A$2.22

Implied upside/downside to mean target

Implied upside of 23.9%

Latest developments

Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) announced its 2026 full year results on 21 August 2026. Net operating profit was $79.1 million, up 8%, statutory net profit was $132 million, up 62%, and operating earnings per security were 19.60 cents, up 5.7%. Distributions per security were 19.25 cents, up 5.5%. Total Assets were $2.0 billion, NAV per security was $3.60, up 4%, and gearing was 24.5%, compared with 22.8% at 30 June 2025.

Rental growth from contracted annual and market rent reviews, acquisitions and development completions underpinned the earnings growth, with a positive net Revaluation movement of 2.7% across the portfolio. FY2027 distribution guidance is for not less than 18.0 cents per security.

On Edge Early Learning, which leases 31 Arena-owned properties representing 14% of annual rental income, rent due was paid up to 31 July 2026 and Arena holds about $4 million of bank guarantees and security deposits. Following non-payment of August rent, Arena issued notices of default to Edge and its lender, which have up to 21 days to remedy. Arena has taken control of two newly developed centres leased to Edge that are completed and yet to open, and has signed term sheets for new 20-year leases for both centres at equivalent rents. The FY2027 guidance assumes no income from the Edge portfolio from 1 August 2026, net of the $4 million of security applied to outstanding rent.

Sector context

The REIT's income comes from long leases to operators of early learning and other social infrastructure properties, where tenant performance and Lease compliance affect income. The company describes contracted annual and market rent reviews as a key driver of growth.

Risks and what to watch

Edge Early Learning accounts for 14% of rental income, and August rent was not paid, with default notices issued. The FY2027 DPS guidance of not less than 18.0 cents is lower than the FY2026 distribution of 19.25 cents because it assumes no Edge income from 1 August 2026. Gearing increased to 24.5%, and the company holds about $4 million of security. The outcome of the default process is not yet known.

Next milestones

Items to watch include the outcome of the default notices to Edge and its lender, re-leasing of the two completed centres, FY2027 distributions against guidance of not less than 18.0 cents per security, gearing and valuations.