Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR): 3 Things Investors Are Watching Right Now

Sonal Goyal

24 September 2026 07:29 PM AEST

Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR): 3 Things Investors Are Watching Right Now

Image Source: Shutterstock

You are reading a free article with opinions that may differ from the recommendation given by Kalkine in its paid research reports. Become a Kalkine member today to get access to our research reports, in-depth technical and fundamental research. Learn more

Start Your Free Trial Now!

Highlights

• Operating profit after tax reached $508 million, up 7% on FY25, with operating EPS of 12.9 cpss.

• Residential gross margins improved to 24%, with 2,130 lots settled and 2,425 lots exchanged (up 15% on FY25).

• Investment portfolio occupancy of 98%, like-for-like growth of 5.3%, and valuation growth of 3.1% across the portfolio.

• An on-market share buy-back of up to $200 million was announced, supported by low gearing of 24.1%.

Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) is a diversified Australian property group with integrated investment, development, and funds management capabilities across office, industrial, retail, living (build-to-rent), and residential sectors. With approximately $18 billion in third-party Capital under management, Mirvac has repositioned from a traditional developer to an asset-light, funds management-oriented model over the past three years. Key Assets include SEED at Badgerys Creek, 55 Pitt Street in Sydney, and its growing LIV Mirvac living platform.

Recent Development

Released on 19 August 2026, Mirvac reported FY26 operating profit of $508 million (up 7%), with operating EPS of 12.9 cpss and distributions of $376 million (9.5 cpss, up 6%). Statutory profit reached $677 million, significantly above FY25's $68 million, driven by stronger development revaluations.

The residential segment delivered EBIT of $233 million (up from $179 million), with 2,130 lots settled and gross margins above target at 24%. Three new masterplanned communities were activated — Kindira in Brisbane, Everdene in Sydney, and Darling in Perth. The investment portfolio delivered EBIT of $602 million at 98% occupancy, with strong leasing spreads across industrial (33.7%), land Lease (12.9%), retail (5.7%), and build-to-rent (4.0%). The funds platform delivered EBIT of $36 million, with MWOF raising approximately $630 million since April 2025 and the LIV Mirvac Fund growing to 2,200 operational lots. A $200 million on-market share buy-back was announced, funded by approximately $500 million in asset sales and approximately $2 billion in capital partnering initiatives in FY26.

Sector Context

Australian residential property markets are experiencing divergent conditions — inner-city Demand supported by population growth and housing shortage, offset by affordability constraints and rate sensitivity. Mirvac's masterplanned communities model, focused on large-scale suburban estates, is well-positioned to capture demand from owner-occupiers and investors seeking value outside CBDs. The company's focus on Premium-grade office, industrial, and build-to-rent reflects sectors with structural undersupply, providing a more resilient income base than commoditised commercial office.

Risks and Uncertainties

The guidance for FY27 operating EPS of 13.2-13.4 cpss assumes 2,800-3,100 residential lot settlements, which remains dependent on construction completions and buyer settlement rates. Average borrowing costs of 5.7% as at June 2026 are elevated, and any further rate increases would increase financing costs. Build-to-rent occupancy at new LIV assets (LIV Anura at 95%, LIV Albert at 69%) highlights lease-up risk for recently completed developments. The $3bn SEED industrial development at Badgerys Creek is a large concentration of capital with execution and leasing risk.

Catalysts to Watch

Progression of SEED Stage 1 construction at Badgerys Creek and the anticipated MIV (Mirvac Industrial Venture) Equity Partnership with Australian Retirement Trust are key milestones. Settlements from Kindira Brisbane, Everdene Sydney, and Darling Perth in 1H27 will test residential pipeline delivery. The development pipeline expansion — anchored by Blackwattle Bay (800 lots) in Sydney and Karnup (1,500 lots) in Perth — provides extended Earnings visibility. Further capital raises by MWOF and the LIV Mirvac Fund would accelerate the asset-light funds management strategy.

Final Thoughts

Mirvac (ASX:MGR) has meaningfully repositioned its Business over three years and is delivering tangible results — stronger residential margins, high investment portfolio occupancy, and a growing funds management platform. The buy-back, combined with a solid FY27 earnings outlook, signals management confidence in the embedded value of the portfolio.

FAQs

Q: What is Mirvac's FY27 earnings guidance?

A: Mirvac provided FY27 guidance of operating EPS of 13.2-13.4 cpss and distributions of 9.9 cpss, assuming 2,800-3,100 residential lot settlements and an expected weighted average cost of debt of approximately 5.7%.

Q: What is the LIV Mirvac Fund?

A: The LIV Mirvac Fund is Mirvac's build-to-rent investment vehicle, targeting institutional co-investors seeking exposure to residential rental income. The fund has grown to approximately 2,200 operational lots across five assets, with additional Sydney and Melbourne projects in the pipeline.

Q: Why did Mirvac announce a buy-back?

A: The $200 million buy-back reflects Mirvac's confidence in the embedded value of its business and low gearing of 24.1%, supported by approximately $500 million in asset sales and approximately $2 billion in capital partnering initiatives in FY26.

Download Free Report – Explore 3 Stock Ideas & Industry Insights

Unlock 3 stock ideas and key industry insights in our free report. This information is general in nature and does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is not financial advice.

All investments involve risk—consider independent advice before making any investment decisions.

View 3 Research Reports

Disclaimer:

This article (“Article”) has been prepared by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and its related bodies corporate who are authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and its associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any information/advice provided in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the information is appropriate for your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Memorandum or other offer document (“Offer Document”) for the securities or other financial products referred to in Kalkine articles. You should obtain a copy of the Offer Document and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or financial product.

Kalkine strongly recommends that you seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) before acting on any advice/information in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this Article and on Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the information contained in its articles (including this Article), newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice.

The information in this Article does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products.

Kalkine does not issue, sell or deal in any financial products.

This Article may contain information on past performance of particular investments. Please note past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

To the extent permitted by law, and excluding any dishonesty or gross negligence by Kalkine, Kalkine disclaims and excludes all liability for any direct, indirect, implied, punitive, special, incidental or other consequential loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on this Article, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website without any warranties or representations by Kalkine to you. To the extent the law prohibits or limits this exclusion, Kalkine limits its liability to the resupply of services.

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information.

Employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities may hold interests in the securities or other financial products covered in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

Some of the images/music that may be used in the Article are copyright to their respective owner(s). Kalkine does not claim ownership of any of the pictures displayed/music used in the Article unless stated otherwise. The images/music that may be used in the Article are taken from various sources on the internet, including paid subscriptions or are believed to be in public domain. We have used reasonable efforts to accredit the source wherever it was indicated or was found to be necessary.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website.