Charter Hall Sees a 'Seismic' Property Shift — Could Hundreds of Billions Move From Housing Into Commercial Assets?

Sonal Goyal

07 September 2026 05:20 PM AEST

Charter Hall Sees a 'Seismic' Property Shift — Could Hundreds of Billions Move From Housing Into Commercial Assets?

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Australians have parked their Wealth in residential property for two generations, accepting thin rental yields on the promise of Capital growth. Charter Hall (ASX:CHC) group chief executive David Harrison thinks the federal government has just broken that bargain. Speaking at The Australian Financial Review Property Summit in Sydney on Monday, he argued that seismic changes in the residential market will push capital into non-residential investment, and put a number on it: $360 billion.

What investors may watch next

The Reserve Bank's September decision is the near-term catalyst for the whole property complex, with Morgan Stanley now forecasting a rise. Beyond that, investors will watch whether Charter Hall's record institutional inflows continue into FY2027, given guidance excludes performance fees.

Evidence for or against Harrison's thesis will show up in fund flows and in whether self-managed Superannuation funds and family offices genuinely rotate toward positively geared commercial Assets from 1 July 2027.

Conclusion

Harrison has articulated a bull case for commercial property built on a tax-driven rotation out of housing. It is a plausible argument with a self-interested advocate. What determines the next phase is whether interest rates rise further, and whether Charter Hall can keep attracting institutional capital without the performance fees that flattered FY2026.

FAQs

Q: What tax changes did the 2026-27 Budget introduce?

A: The Budget limits negative gearing to new builds from 1 July 2027 (properties held before Budget night are grandfathered), and replaces the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount with an inflation-based discount and a minimum 30 per cent tax on gains from 1 July 2027.

Q: Does the CGT change affect commercial property too?

A: Yes. While the negative gearing restriction is residential-specific, the CGT change applies across asset classes, so commercial property investors also lose the 50 per cent discount from 1 July 2027.

Q: What is Charter Hall's FY2027 earnings guidance?

A: Charter Hall guided to post-tax operating earnings per security of about 114.0 cents, up 10.5 per cent, on an assumption of no performance fee revenue. FY2026 operating earnings were 103.2 cents per security, up 26.8 per cent.

Q: How much capital does Charter Hall manage?

A: Charter Hall's group funds under management reached $94.3 billion at 30 June 2026, up about 12 per cent, with record gross equity inflows of $6.7 billion, close to double the prior year.

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