Key Highlights

  • Revenue rose 19% to A$7.6 billion for FY26, helped by a realised gold price about 26% higher.
  • Underlying net profit rose 26% to A$1.79 billion, and underlying EBITDA rose 22% to A$4.27 billion.
  • Cash Earnings rose 1% to A$2.91 billion, and cash and bullion at year-end were A$1.2 billion.
  • FY27 production is targeted at 1.5 to 1.65 million ounces alongside a very large Capital program.

Why is Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) guiding to a very large capital program for FY27 just after reporting its most encouraging year? The answer is that the gold miner is using a higher gold price to fund the expansion of the KCGM processing operation in Western Australia and the development of the Hemi project, aiming to keep production in a range of 1.5 to 1.65 million ounces while costs stay contained.

The central development

Northern Star announced its FY26 results on 20 August 2026. Statutory net profit after tax was A$1.66 billion and underlying net profit was A$1.79 billion, up 26%. Underlying EBITDA was A$4.27 billion, up 22%. Cash earnings were A$2.91 billion, up 1%, and cash and bullion at year-end were A$1.2 billion.

The contrast between earnings growth of more than 20% and cash earnings growth of 1% deserves attention. It implies that much of the benefit of the higher gold price was absorbed by costs, Working Capital movements or Investment spending rather than reaching cash. Investors reading the full Cash Flow Statement should look at where the difference lies.

Shareholder returns

The company declared a full-year Dividend of 55 cents per share, fully franked, including a 30-cent final dividend. It also continued its on-market buy-back, having spent A$129 million to buy more than 6.3 million shares so far, with cumulative capital management of A$3.3 billion to date.

FY27 guidance

The company's guidance, which is a management statement and not a result, is for FY27 gold production of 1.5 to 1.65 million ounces at an All-In Sustaining Cost of A$3,050 to A$3,450 per ounce. Initial-stage production from the expanded KCGM is guided at 550,000 to 650,000 ounces. Capital Expenditure is guided at A$2,550 million to A$2,935 million, and exploration spending at A$230 million to A$250 million, focused on KCGM, Pogo and Hemi.

At a materially lower gold price, however, the Margin for error would be thinner, which is why the company's cost guidance matters as much as its production guidance.

Business drivers and projects

Northern Star mines and processes gold at operations in Western Australia, through the KCGM and Jundee hubs among others, and in Alaska through Pogo. Revenue depends on ounces sold and the realised gold price in Australian dollars; profit depends on the spread between price and AISC. In FY26 the price effect dominated.

KCGM, in Kalgoorlie, is the centrepiece. A newly built power station supports future Mining volumes. The Hemi gold project, which the company gained through its Acquisition of De Grey Mining in 2025, is being integrated, with development cited as a growth opportunity.

Recent update

On 21 October 2026 Northern Star released a production and commissioning update for the September quarter. The company's disclosures cover the release on the ASX platform for those numbers.

Sector and competitive position

Northern Star is among Australia's largest gold producers, competing for capital and investor attention with Evolution Mining, Newmont's Australian operations, Perseus and mid-tier producers such as Ramelius and Regis. Its scale gives it Options that smaller miners lack: multiple processing hubs, a large exploration budget and the Balance Sheet to fund both a major expansion and returns to shareholders.

Risks to weigh

The main risk is the gold price, which both drives profit and underpins the Economics of the capital program. Project risk is next: the KCGM expansion and Hemi development involve complex engineering, and delays or cost overruns would affect returns and free cash flow. Operational disruption, which has affected the company in past periods at its Jundee and South Kalgoorlie operations, can reduce production. Cost Inflation could push AISC outside guidance. Finally, there is capital allocation risk if buy-backs or dividends compete with growth spending when prices fall.

What to monitor

The next catalysts are straightforward. The December quarter report should show whether production and costs are tracking within guidance. Progress on KCGM commissioning, including throughput ramp-up and any teething issues, will show whether the expansion delivers the consistency management expects. Hemi development updates and any approvals milestones will indicate timing for the next growth stage.