Highlights

• PhosCo reports an updated Gasaat scoping-study case with a 49-year production target in Tunisia.

• The study estimates a post-tax NPV at a 10% discount rate of US$732 million.

• The model indicates a 52% post-tax internal rate of return and a 20-month payback period.

• An estimated US$220 million in funding may be needed to pursue the projected development outcomes.

A revised preliminary study has set out the scale, costs and forecast Economics of the Gasaat phosphate proposal in northern Tunisia. PhosCo Limited (ASX:PHO) reports a 49-year mine-life production target and a post-tax net present value of US$732 million at a 10% discount rate. The figures come from a scoping-level assessment and are not a completed feasibility study or a development commitment.

What Does the Study Estimate?

The 2026 update estimates a post-tax internal rate of return of 52%, with payback approximately 20 months after commercial production begins. Modelled total Revenue over the mine life is around US$10 billion, based on a weighted average phosphate concentrate price of US$152 per tonne. The projected average annual net Cash Flow during the first ten production years is approximately US$106 million. These are forecast results derived from study assumptions, not realised Earnings or cash receipts.

How Long Could Gasaat Operate?

The study describes a production target of about 134 million tonnes at 19.9% phosphorus pentoxide over 49 years. The mine plan envisages starting at the KM area for four years before production moves to SAB and KEL. The proposed project combines an open-pit mine and processing Facility to produce concentrate for export. The underlying mineral resource classifications include Measured, Indicated and Inferred material, and the company states that inferred resources are not the determining Factor in project viability.

What Investment Would Development Require?

PhosCo estimates that funding of the order of US$220 million could be required to achieve the outlined project outcomes. Potential financing routes discussed include Debt and equity, development banks, resource Credit funds, product sales arrangements, joint ventures or other corporate transactions. The company has engaged with advisers and potential financiers, but funding is not secured. A scoping model can test a possible development concept; it does not itself demonstrate that financing or construction will follow.

Which Study Limitations Matter?

The updated scoping study has an indicated accuracy of plus or minus 35%. Its technical and economic assessments are preliminary and insufficient to estimate ore reserves. Further exploration, evaluation and higher-confidence studies are required before project viability can be established. The production target and financial forecasts depend on assumptions, and there is no certainty that the target will be achieved or that a mineral resource will be converted into ore reserves. Those qualifications are integral to interpreting the reported numbers.

What Comes Next?

The updated assessment establishes a set of production and financial scenarios for further project evaluation. Its long operating life and forecast returns are tied to assumed Mining schedules, concentrate pricing, processing performance and access to capital. PhosCo has not reported a completed financing package or ore reserve as part of the study. The next development decisions therefore depend on additional technical work and the ability to secure funding on acceptable terms.