Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC): Can Higher Earnings Offset Copper Output and Cost Pressures?

Aditi Sarkar

10 November 2026 04:17 PM AEDT

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC): Can Higher Earnings Offset Copper Output and Cost Pressures?

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Highlights

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) shares traded at AUD 11.805 on 10 November 2026, up 2.47% during the session.
Q3 2026 Revenue increased to USD 712.0 million; adjusted EBITDA reached USD 358.3 million.
Quarterly copper output fell 18% year on year to 45,218 tonnes, while C1 costs rose.
The company expects 2026 copper output near the low end of its 200,000–230,000-tonne guidance.

Capstone Copper Corp. (ASX:CSC) operates copper mines in Chile, the United States and Mexico, with development interests concentrated in the Americas. Its shares were trading at AUD 11.805 on 10 November 2026, a gain of 2.47% during the session. The company’s latest quarterly results showed higher revenue and adjusted Earnings alongside reduced copper production and rising unit costs, while work continued on its Mantoverde expansion and planned portfolio changes.

Copper Operations Across the Americas

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) operates the Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos mines in Chile, Pinto Valley in Arizona and Cozamin in Mexico. Mantoverde produces copper concentrate and cathodes, while Mantos Blancos also processes sulphide and oxide ore. Pinto Valley is an open-pit copper operation and Cozamin is an underground copper-silver mine. The company also holds the Santo Domingo copper-iron-gold development project in Chile.

In September 2026, Capstone entered an agreement to sell Cozamin for consideration of up to USD 385 million. The proposed transaction remained subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals, with completion targeted for the fourth quarter. The company also completed the Acquisition of San Pietro copper concessions in August, adding land near its Chilean assets.

September Quarter Production and Project Updates

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) produced 45,218 tonnes of copper in Q3 2026, compared with 55,280 tonnes in Q3 2025. Sulphide production declined to 39,815 tonnes from 44,904 tonnes, reflecting maintenance interruptions at Pinto Valley and lower grades and recoveries at Mantos Blancos. Mantoverde recorded higher copper-in-concentrate output, partly offsetting those reductions.

Cathode production decreased to 5,403 tonnes from 10,376 tonnes. At Mantoverde, the company deliberately reduced processing of ore requiring substantial sulphuric acid consumption amid elevated acid prices. Pinto Valley produced 6,358 tonnes of copper after planned and unplanned plant downtime; the company described additional crusher repairs during commissioning in October.

At Mantoverde, critical tie-ins for the Optimized sulphide concentrator project were completed in September. Capstone reported a peak daily throughput of 53,412 ore tonnes in October and aims to sustain 45,000 tonnes per day from early 2027. The USD 176 million project budget remained unchanged at the October results announcement.

Q3 2026 Earnings, Cash Flow and Costs

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) reported Q3 2026 revenue of USD 712.0 million, up from USD 598.4 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA increased to USD 358.3 million from USD 249.2 million, reflecting higher realised copper, gold and silver prices. However, attributable Net Income declined to USD 98.5 million from USD 248.1 million; the prior-year comparison included a USD 209.5 million non-cash Impairment reversal.

Operating cash flow before working-capital movements reached USD 329.1 million, compared with USD 231.2 million in Q3 2025. Free cash flow from operations increased to USD 63.7 million from USD 23.2 million. Net Debt stood at USD 564.0 million on 30 September 2026, while available Liquidity totalled USD 1,089.4 million.

Consolidated C1 cash costs rose to USD 2.95 per payable pound from USD 2.42 a year earlier. Lower output and higher diesel and sulphuric acid costs contributed to the increase, partly offset by by-product credits and favourable treatment charges. These pressures illustrate the sensitivity of operating margins to production reliability and input prices.

Guidance, Risks and What Comes Next

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) expects 2026 copper production near the bottom of its 200,000–230,000-tonne guidance range, with C1 costs near the upper end of USD 2.45–2.75 per payable pound. It also raised total Capital expenditure guidance by USD 40 million to USD 830 million. The outlook includes a full year of Cozamin production despite its proposed sale.

Near-term monitoring points include Pinto Valley plant reliability, the Mantoverde ramp-up, input costs and completion of the Cozamin transaction. Capstone is also progressing work towards a possible Santo Domingo final Investment decision in Q1 2027. Timelines and costs remain exposed to engineering, permitting, financing and operating conditions.

Key Insights

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) reported higher Q3 2026 earnings and cash generation despite lower copper volumes and higher unit costs. Mantoverde expansion progress and portfolio restructuring provide identifiable milestones, while Pinto Valley performance and cost Inflation remain important considerations for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

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