Highlights

  • The stock has gained over 18% year to date in 2026.
  • Broker consensus indicates a HOLD rating with implied downside.
  • Quarterly update shows higher production and steady EBITDA performance.

Shares of New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX:NHC) treaded at AUD 4.79, rising 1.48% in the latest trading session. Over the past five days, the stock has added 1.91%, while the one-month gain stands at 8.37%, reflecting continued upward momentum in recent weeks.

The six-month performance shows an increase of 10.11%, while year-to-date gains have reached 18.27%. On a one-year basis, the stock is up 7.64%. The longer-term trajectory remains notable, with a 283.20% increase over the past five years, highlighting the cyclical upswing experienced by coal producers during periods of elevated commodity pricing.

Despite recent gains, the share price remains sensitive to benchmark coal price movements and broader energy market trends. The stock’s current level of AUD 4.79 positions it above consensus valuation metrics set by analysts.

Broker View: Hold Rating Reflects Valuation Balance
Analysts covering the company maintain a HOLD rating. The consensus target price of AUD 4.07 implies a potential downside of approximately 15% compared to the current market price.

The cautious stance reflects what brokers describe as a relatively balanced near-term outlook. While coal demand conditions remain stable and operational cost management continues within guidance, the long-term growth (LTG) estimate of around 2.16% indicates limited structural expansion expectations.

At current levels, brokers appear to view the stock as fairly valued, with further upside likely dependent on sustained commodity price strength and supportive energy market dynamics rather than internal growth acceleration.

Quarterly Update: Production and Sales Increase
On 16 February 2026, New Hope Corporation reported operational results for the quarter ended 31 January 2026.

Group run-of-mine (ROM) coal production increased 4.8% quarter-on-quarter to 4.1Mt. Coal sales rose 8.2% to 2.9Mt. The average realised price improved to AUD 139.0/t compared to AUD 136.6/t in the prior quarter.

Underlying EBITDA was AUD 106.9 million for the quarter, taking first-half FY26 EBITDA to AUD 214.8 million. The company reported a cash balance of AUD 616.8 million at quarter-end.

Asset-Level Performance: NSW and QLD Operations
Bengalla Mine (80% interest, NSW) - ROM production increased 4.7% to 2.2Mt, supported by improved mining conditions following earlier weather disruptions. Coal sales rose 3.3% to 2.0Mt. FOB cash cost (excluding royalty) was AUD 84.4/t, within FY26 guidance of AUD 81–89/t. Sustaining capital guidance was reduced to AUD 100–130 million from AUD 130–160 million.

New Acland Mine (QLD) - ROM production rose 4.9% to 1.8Mt. Coal sales increased 20.4% to 0.9Mt, reflecting improved rail performance and higher processing yields.

Market Pricing and Outlook - During the quarter, the gC NEWC 6000 benchmark averaged USD 109.5/t. Most production for the next three months has already been sold. Bengalla is expected to return to its 13.4Mtpa run-rate in the second half of FY26.

With broker consensus indicating a HOLD rating and a target price below current levels, New Hope Corporation is navigating a phase marked by share price gains alongside moderate long-term growth expectations. Recent quarterly results showed higher production, improved realised pricing, and steady EBITDA, while benchmark coal pricing remains a key variable influencing future performance. Market participants continue to track commodity trends, cost guidance, and production run-rate recovery through the remainder of FY26.

FAQs

Q1. What is the current broker consensus on New Hope Corporation?
Analysts maintain a HOLD rating with a consensus target price of AUD 4.07.

Q2. How has the stock performed year to date?
The shares have gained 18.27% year to date in 2026.

Q3. What was the company’s underlying EBITDA for the recent quarter?
Underlying EBITDA was AUD 106.9 million for the quarter ended 31 January 2026.