Key Takeaways

  • The proposed demerger of CSL Seqirus has not been completed. It was deferred in October 2025, no shareholder vote has been held and no new timetable exists.
  • Interim chief executive Gordon Naylor's 90-day review on 11 May 2026 cut FY26 guidance to about US$15.2 billion of revenue and US$3.1 billion of NPATA at constant currency and flagged about US$5 billion of further impairments.
  • CSL reports in US dollars but lists in Australian dollars. The.00 to A$275.79.

Why CSL is under the microscope again

CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) spent two decades as the ASX's most reliable compounder. It meets its FY26 result, due 18 August, as one of the market's most contested large caps. Its year ended 30 June 2026 and it reports in US dollars while trading in Australian dollars.

The shares changed hands around A$116 on 27 July, roughly 35 per cent above an early June low but far beneath a.79.

The demerger that has not happened

Alongside its FY25 results in August 2025, CSL said CSL Seqirus would "be demerged as a substantial ASX-listed entity before the end of Financial Year 2026", subject to consents, approvals and a voluntary shareholder vote.

At its annual meeting on 28 October 2025 CSL deferred that plan, citing volatility in the US influenza vaccine market and saying it would revisit timing when conditions supported maximising shareholder value. The.6 per cent to A$176.23.

No vote has been put to shareholders, no booklet issued and no fresh timetable given: the demerger remains proposed and deferred. What did proceed is an internal operational separation, described on 11 May 2026 as "on track for 1 July".

A restructure, then a reset

That package carried a net headcount reduction of up to 15 per cent, one-off pre-tax restructuring costs of US$700-770 million in FY26 and annualised savings of US$500-550 million, now framed as arriving by FY28 rather than FY27. R&D anchor sites fall from 11 to six.

Naylor's 90-day review on 11 May 2026 cut FY26 expectations to about US$15.2 billion of revenue and US$3.1 billion of NPATA at constant currency, excluding restructuring and impairments. It cited about US$300 million of US immunoglobulin inventory normalisation, US$200 million from albumin in China and US$150 million of other items.

CSL also flagged about US$5 billion of additional non-cash pre-tax impairments across FY26 and FY27, on top of about US$1.5 billion booked at the half. The shares closed at A$95.19. Naylor said the growth initiatives were working "but the financial benefits will take longer than previously anticipated".

What the half-year numbers showed

For the six months to 31 December 2025, revenue was US$8.3 billion and NPATA US$1.9 billion, down 4 and 7 per cent at constant currency. Statutory net profit after tax fell 81 per cent to US$401 million and operating cash flow rose 3 per cent to US$1.3 billion.

CSL Behring revenue fell 7 per cent to US$5.5 billion, immunoglobulins 6 per cent to US$3.0 billion and albumin 27 per cent to US$494 million. CSL Seqirus fell 2 per cent to US$1.6 billion; CSL Vifor rose 12 per cent to US$1.2 billion.

The critical line was CSL Behring's gross margin: 51.2 per cent, up only 10 basis points at constant currency after a 130 basis point gain in FY25. The march back to pre-pandemic margins has stalled.

Plasma, yield and the margin engine

The RIKA plasmapheresis rollout finished in June 2025, the iNomi individualised nomogram is deployed and CSL closed 22 underperforming US collection centres, 7 per cent of its footprint, in August 2025.

In May 2026 CSL reported plasma cost per litre falling, benefits from Horizon 1 yield work and a successful first full-scale Horizon 2 module and it is spending US$1.5 billion expanding plasma manufacturing in Illinois. Immunoglobulin demand is still put at mid-to-high single-digit growth, with PRIVIGEN's US intravenous share up from 19 to 21 per cent since CY2023 while HIZENTRA's subcutaneous share slipped to 55 per cent.

The pipeline, checked rather than remembered

Garadacimab, sold as ANDEMBRY for hereditary angioedema, is launched, with US Food and Drug Administration clearance in June 2025. It made US$76 million in the half, reaching about 1,200 patients.

CSL112 missed its phase 3 AEGIS-II primary endpoint in February 2024 and no longer appears on CSL's published pipeline. Clazakizumab stays in phase 3 in end-stage kidney disease; on 18 February 2026 Eli Lilly licensed rights to other indications for US$100 million upfront plus milestones and royalties.

HEMGENIX, the haemophilia B gene therapy, grew 16 per cent to US$57 million but suffered a temporary global stockout disclosed on 17 March 2026, blamed on manufacturing complexity, not safety. A further supply update followed on 24 July.

CSL Vifor, TAVNEOS and generic iron

CSL Vifor grew revenue 12 per cent and lifted its segment margin, yet FERINJECT is eroded by European generics and VENOFER by US generics. Vifor intangibles account for much of the flagged impairment and from 1 July 2026 one executive leads both units commercially.

On 26 June 2026 the European Medicines Agency's CHMP recommended revoking TAVNEOS' EU marketing authorisation after reviewing data handling in the ADVOCATE phase 3 trial. CSL put FY26 TAVNEOS sales near US$145 million; the European Commission's decision is pending.

Balance sheet, buy-back and dividend

At 31 December 2025 CSL reported net assets of US$20.5 billion and leverage of 2.0 times net debt to EBITDA, the top of its 1.5 to 2.0 times target. The multi-year on-market buy-back began with A$750 million for FY26 and at the half CSL said it was "expanded from US$500m to US$750m". Daily notices ran to early May then stopped.

The interim dividend was US$1.30 per share, paid on 9 April 2026, after a US$1.62 final for FY25. Australian holders receive the Australian dollar equivalent, so the payout also moves with the currency.

Where the risks sit

US policy is the largest external variable. Section 232 pharmaceutical tariffs were proclaimed on 2 April 2026 and take effect on 29 September. CSL says most US sales are exempt because plasma-derived therapies are excluded and its US therapies use US-sourced plasma; UK-made Fluad attracts 10 per cent, which CSL expects to reach zero.

Operationally the risks are plasma costs, immunoglobulin competition including subcutaneous and emerging non-plasma alternatives, albumin pricing in China, gene therapy manufacturing, currency and executing a restructure alongside a separation. Governance is unsettled too: 42 per cent of votes opposed the 2025 remuneration report and a permanent chief executive is still being sought.