Highlights

  • Ord Minnett issues a Buy rating on AUB Group with a target price of AUD 42.17.
  • AUB confirms receipt of a non-binding indicative proposal from EQT to acquire 100% of the company for AUD 45.00 per share.
  • Underlying NPAT for FY25 stood at AUD 200.2 million, up from AUD 171.0 million in FY24.
  • Reported NPAT in FY25 increased 31.4% year-on-year to AUD 180.1 million.
  • Fully franked final dividend of 66.0 cents per share, bringing the total FY25 dividend to 91.0 cents, up 15.2% from last year.
  • FY26 guidance projects Underlying NPAT between AUD 215 million and AUD 227 million, reflecting 7.4%–13.4% growth over FY25.

AUB Group Limited (ASX: AUB) has received a Buy rating from Ord Minnett, with a target price of AUD 42.17. The rating comes amid heightened market attention following an unsolicited acquisition proposal from EQT AB’s affiliate, Arbutus Pte. Limited.

On 28 October 2025, AUB confirmed receipt of a confidential and non-binding indicative proposal from EQT to acquire 100% of AUB shares at AUD 45.00 per share via a scheme of arrangement. The proposal followed an earlier indicative offer of AUD 43.00 per share made in mid-September 2025.

The AUB Board has entered into a confidentiality and exclusivity agreement with EQT to facilitate due diligence over a six-week period beginning 8 October 2025. However, the company noted that no assurance can be given that the discussions will result in a definitive transaction.

Financial and Operational Performance

In the fiscal year ended 30 June 2025, the company’s Underlying Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) rose 17.1% to AUD 200.2 million, compared to AUD 171.0 million in FY24. Reported NPAT increased to AUD 180.1 million, marking a 31.4% year-on-year improvement, supported by steady earnings growth across its insurance broking and underwriting operations.

Underlying earnings per share (EPS) stood at 171.75 cents, up from 156.78 cents in the prior year. Reflecting its strong cash generation, the company declared a fully franked final dividend of 66.0 cents per share, taking the total FY25 dividend to 91.0 cents, a 15.2% increase from FY24.

The company’s leverage ratio at the end of FY25 was 1.97x, supported by AUD 375 million in accessible cash and undrawn debt facilities.

FY26 Outlook and Guidance

For FY26, AUB expects Underlying NPAT to be in the range of AUD 215.0 million to AUD 227.0 million, representing growth between 7.4% and 13.4% over FY25. The company anticipates contributions from recently completed acquisitions and sustained growth across its key business units.

Operational assumptions for FY26 include stable renewal patterns, consistent income distribution between halves, and effective foreign exchange risk management, including hedging for approximately 55% of USD flows through FY26.

Dividend and Capital Management

The final fully franked dividend of 66.0 cents per share will be paid on 10 October 2025, with the record date set at 9 September 2025. The Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) remains suspended.