Highlights

• Whitehaven Coal is scheduled to release its June Quarter Production Report on 28 July 2026, ahead of FY26 results expected on 19 August 2026.

• FY26 guidance remains unchanged, with managed ROM production targeted at 37.0Mt to 41.0Mt, equity sales of 23.3Mt to 26.1Mt and unit costs of A$130 to A$145 per tonne.

• The company entered the final quarter tracking towards the upper half of production guidance following stronger operational performance across its portfolio.

• Net debt declined to A$0.6 billion at 31 March 2026, while refinancing initiatives are expected to deliver annual interest savings.

• Whitehaven Coal shares traded at A$7.13, down 4.55% (-A$0.34) during the session as investors awaited operational updates and FY26 production confirmation.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX:WHC) is approaching a key operational milestone as investors await the June Quarter Production Report, which will provide the final production update before the company releases its FY26 results.

The report will determine whether Whitehaven achieved the upper half of its production guidance range after navigating weather disruptions in Queensland and operational challenges at its Narrabri underground mine.

June Quarter Report Becomes Key FY26 Checkpoint

The June quarter represents the final opportunity for Whitehaven to demonstrate whether its FY26 operational targets have been achieved.

The company previously maintained guidance of 37.0Mt to 41.0Mt in managed run-of-mine production, equity sales of 23.3Mt to 26.1Mt and unit costs of A$130 to A$145 per tonne.

Through the first nine months of FY26, Whitehaven reported managed ROM production of 29.5Mt and equity sales of 19.6Mt.

This means the June quarter performance will determine whether the company finishes within the upper half of its guidance range, as management previously indicated.

The upcoming update will also provide further clarity on production recovery following disruptions experienced during the March quarter.

Mixed Operational Performance Across Assets

Whitehaven’s March quarter performance reflected contrasting conditions across its operating portfolio.

Managed ROM production declined to 9.5Mt during the quarter, impacted by wet weather in Queensland and operational issues at Narrabri.

Queensland operations experienced a 28% decline in ROM production due to wet-season disruptions, although sales remained supported by existing stockpiles.

Blackwater produced 2.6Mt during the quarter, while sales reached 3.1Mt, highlighting the benefit of inventory availability.

Narrabri production declined significantly following a geotechnical disruption, with ROM output falling 44% quarter on quarter to 1.0Mt. However, sales remained supported at 1.5Mt.

In contrast, Maules Creek delivered stronger performance, increasing ROM production by 31% to 3.4Mt, supported by improved rail performance.

Diversified Portfolio Supports Long-Term Strategy

Whitehaven has transformed its portfolio from a predominantly New South Wales thermal coal producer into a diversified coal company with exposure to both metallurgical and thermal coal markets.

The company’s Queensland assets include Blackwater and Daunia, acquired from the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance, which provide exposure to metallurgical coal used in steel production.

Its New South Wales operations include Maules Creek, Narrabri and the Gunnedah Basin assets, which supply thermal coal and some semi-soft coking coal.

This diversification provides exposure to different commodity cycles, reducing dependence on a single coal market.

During the March quarter, approximately 58% of revenue came from metallurgical coal, while thermal coal contributed around 42%.

Financial Position Continues to Improve

Whitehaven entered FY26 facing weaker coal pricing conditions, which affected first-half financial performance.

Revenue for the six months ended 31 December 2025 declined to A$2.5 billion from A$3.4 billion, while underlying EBITDA fell to A$446 million from A$960 million.

The company reported an underlying net loss after tax of A$19 million, reflecting the impact of lower realised coal prices.

However, the balance sheet has strengthened through debt reduction and refinancing activity.

Net debt declined from A$0.8 billion at 30 September 2025 to A$0.6 billion at 31 March 2026.

The company also completed refinancing activities, including US$900 million of senior secured notes and a US$600 million bank facility, which are expected to reduce annual interest expenses by approximately A$50 million to A$55 million.

Capital Returns Remain Dependent on Earnings Recovery

Whitehaven has maintained its commitment to shareholder returns, targeting distributions of 40% to 60% of underlying group net profit after tax.

The company’s capital management approach includes both dividends and share buybacks.

During FY26, Whitehaven continued its buyback programme alongside dividend payments, including a fully franked interim dividend.

However, the final dividend outcome will depend heavily on second-half operational performance, realised coal prices and full-year earnings.

Why the June Quarter Matters

The June quarter is important because it will determine whether Whitehaven’s operational recovery is translating into improved financial outcomes.

Production performance will provide insight into whether Queensland operations recovered following weather disruptions and whether Narrabri returned to more stable output.

Cash generation will also be closely watched, particularly after the company completed major portfolio changes and debt refinancing.

The update will help investors assess whether recent balance sheet improvements can continue alongside shareholder returns and future growth investments.

Growth Catalysts to Watch

Potential catalysts for Whitehaven include:

• June Quarter Production Report confirming FY26 production performance.

• FY26 results on 19 August 2026, including final dividend and capital management decisions.

• Delivery of expected annual interest savings following refinancing.

• Further progress on growth projects including Winchester South and Vickery.

• Continued improvement in metallurgical coal production from Queensland assets.

Risks and Challenges

Operational performance remains the key short-term risk for Whitehaven.

Narrabri’s geotechnical challenges highlight the complexity of underground mining, where production disruptions can materially affect quarterly results.

Weather conditions also remain an ongoing risk, particularly across Queensland operations where wet seasons can impact production and logistics.

Coal price volatility remains the largest external factor. The first half of FY26 demonstrated the impact of weaker realised prices, with EBITDA declining significantly despite cost improvements.

The company also remains exposed to changes in global steel demand, thermal coal consumption trends and broader energy transition pressures.

What Investors Should Watch Next

The June quarter report will provide important signals on Whitehaven’s FY26 performance.

Key areas to monitor include:

• Managed ROM production compared with FY26 guidance.

• Equity sales volumes and realised coal prices.

• Narrabri production recovery following operational disruptions.

• Unit costs compared with the A$130 to A$145 per tonne guidance range.

• Final dividend decision and capital return plans at the FY26 results.

Conclusion

Whitehaven Coal enters its June quarter update with expectations already positioned around achieving the upper half of FY26 guidance.

The company has made significant progress strengthening its balance sheet following major portfolio changes, while gaining greater exposure to metallurgical coal markets through its Queensland assets.

However, the upcoming production report will determine whether operational improvements across the portfolio were sufficient to offset weather disruptions and mine-specific challenges.

With shares trading at A$7.13, down 4.55% (-A$0.34), investors remain focused on whether Whitehaven can convert its diversified portfolio and improved financial position into stronger long-term shareholder returns.