Key Highlights

  • Origin will not request support under its Eraring safety-net agreement for the 2027 fiscal year.
  • Adjusted free Cash Flow was $2,074 million, up from $1,207 million.
  • Adjusted net Debt was $4,852 million at 30 June 2026, or 1.6 times underlying EBITDA.
  • Eraring battery stages two and four are expected to reach commercial operation in the first quarter of calendar 2027.

Origin Energy is a member of the S&P/ASX 50 and has spent 2026 reshaping its portfolio around the Eraring power station, its Kraken Technologies shareholding and its gas exposure. The answer is mixed: cash generation strengthened in the year to 30 June 2026, while Underlying Profit fell and several outcomes remain outside management's control.

What the company does

Origin is an Australian energy retailer and generator. Its Energy Markets division sells electricity and gas and operates generation, including the Eraring coal-fired station in New South Wales and a growing battery portfolio. Its Integrated Gas division holds a share of Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG). Origin also holds an interest in Octopus Energy, the UK retailer, and in Kraken Technologies, the software platform separated from Octopus.

Latest developments

On 20 January 2026 Origin announced that Eraring would run until April 2029, rather than closing in August 2027. Origin has since told the New South Wales government it will not request support under its safety-net agreement for the 2027 fiscal year, having also not triggered it for 2026; the report gave no date.

Origin reported a US$1bn Kraken Equity raise as completed in July 2026. December 2025 press coverage reported an Origin stake of 22.7 per cent after the raise. Origin's August 2026 results presentation also dated the Octopus and Kraken demerger to 17 June 2026.

On 31 July 2026 Origin issued its Quarterly Report and fiscal 2027 APLNG production guidance.

Financial and operational evidence

Origin reported full-year results on 13 August 2026. Underlying profit was $1,159m, compared with $1,490m a year earlier. Statutory profit was $1,574m, compared with $1,481m. Underlying EBITDA was $3,220m, against $3,411m.

The divisions diverged. Energy Markets EBITDA rose to $1,701m from $1,404m. Integrated Gas EBITDA fell to $1,620m from $2,202m, with Origin's share of APLNG at $1,478m, down from $1,875m. Octopus Energy lost $8m, narrower than the $88m loss a year earlier, helped by UK Retail EBITDA of $134m.

Adjusted free cash flow was $2,074m, up from $1,207m. The final Dividend was 30 cents per share, fully franked, taking the full-year total to 60 cents, unchanged. Future dividends are not assured.

Material risks

Energy Markets Earnings depend on wholesale electricity prices, coal supply, regulated tariffs and the reliability of an ageing power station. Extending Eraring postpones closure but prolongs exposure to fuel costs and emissions policy.

The gas Business is sensitive to oil-linked LNG pricing and exchange rates, and Origin estimated a net loss of $163m from oil and currency hedging in fiscal 2027. APLNG production is guided at 625 to 670 petajoules, compared with 668 in fiscal 2026.

Kraken's loss of $4m in fiscal 2026, against a $27m profit, shows that growth Investment can weigh on reported results, and the value of Origin's stake will depend on Kraken's future customer wins, funding and execution as an independent business. Adjusted net debt also rose slightly during the year.

Milestones to watch

Origin guided to Energy Markets EBITDA of $1,550m to $1,850m for fiscal 2027, which is lower at the midpoint than the fiscal 2026 result. Capital expenditure, excluding acquisitions, is guided at $450m to $650m.

Eraring battery stages two and four are expected to reach commercial operation in the first quarter of calendar 2027, adding to the 460 megawatts operating since December 2025. Kraken Revenue growth is guided above 20 per cent. Readers may also watch whether later quarterly and half-year results show guidance being met on time.