Key Highlights

• New Hope is a coal miner producing thermal coal from its Bengalla and New Acland operations in Queensland and New.

• Saleable production rose 8% to 11.5 million tonnes in the year to 31 July 2026, but lower coal prices cut.

• New Hope's fortunes are driven by the coal price, which it cannot control, and by its Investment in expanding and.

• The 2026 financial year illustrated both forces clearly - production grew, but a lower coal price sharply reduced earnings, underlining.

New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) is an Australian coal miner and a member of the S&P/ASX 200 energy sector. It produces thermal coal - the type burned to generate electricity - chiefly from its Bengalla mine in New South Wales and its New Acland mine in Queensland. As a coal producer, New Hope's fortunes are shaped by two forces above all: the price of coal, which is set by global markets and largely beyond its control, and its investment in developing, expanding and extending the life of its mines, which determines how much it can produce and for how long.

The 2026 financial year illustrated both forces clearly - production grew, but a lower coal price sharply reduced earnings, underlining how central the Commodity price is to the company's results.

Why the coal price is decisive

For a coal miner, the selling price of coal is the single most important driver of profitability. Coal is a commodity traded on global markets, and its price rises and falls with worldwide Supply and Demand - influenced by energy demand, economic activity, competing energy sources, weather and geopolitics. An individual producer like New Hope has no control over this price and simply receives whatever the market pays.

The 2026 result

For the year to 31 July 2026, New Hope reported saleable coal production of 11.5 million tonnes, up 8%, comprising 8.2 million tonnes from Bengalla and 3.3 million tonnes from New Acland. Higher production would ordinarily support higher earnings, but a lower coal price worked the other way.

Why mine investment matters

Alongside the coal price, New Hope's investment in its mines shapes its outlook. Mines are depleting assets, so to sustain and grow production a miner must invest in expanding existing operations, extending their approved life and developing new capacity. New Hope has invested in growing output at Bengalla and in restarting and ramping up New Acland, which had been constrained by approvals for years before Mining resumed.

A Balance Sheet through the cycle

One feature that helps New Hope weather the Volatility of coal prices is its financial strength. It ended the 2026 year with A$778.5 million in cash and has generally maintained a conservative balance sheet, building reserves during periods of high prices. This cushion allows it to keep investing in its mines, pay dividends and withstand weaker prices without distress.

The risks

New Hope faces substantial risks. The most obvious is the coal price, which is volatile and beyond its control, and which can fall sharply as it did in 2026, cutting earnings. Beyond price, the coal industry faces long-term structural pressure from the global shift away from fossil fuels toward cleaner energy, which raises questions about the future demand for thermal coal and the long-term value of coal assets.

A coal miner shaped by price and investment

Despite these risks, New Hope remains a substantial coal producer with growing output, a balance sheet and a continued ability to return cash to shareholders. The 2026 result showed both sides of its story: rising production from its mine investment, offset by a sharp fall in Earnings as the coal price weakened.

What to watch next

New Hope reports half-yearly, with production updates through the year. The figures that matter most are saleable production, the realised coal price, revenue, underlying EBITDA, net profit and the dividend, along with the cash balance. The realised coal price, in particular, largely determines the direction of earnings.