Amplitude Energy Limited (ASX:AEL): What Does the 2026 Otway Gas Decision Mean?

Aditi Sarkar

05 November 2026 10:22 PM AEDT

Amplitude Energy Limited (ASX:AEL): What Does the 2026 Otway Gas Decision Mean?

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Highlights

Amplitude sanctioned the East Coast Supply Project development phase in September 2026.
The project targets up to 90 terajoules per day of gross gas production from 2028.
Expected point-forward development spending is AUD 190–210 million net over FY27 and FY28.
Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL) also sanctioned the Nestor exploration well.

Amplitude Energy Limited (ASX:AEL) supplies Natural Gas to southeastern Australia and produces oil from the Cooper Basin, with exploration and development Assets across the Otway and Gippsland basins. Its principal 2026 development announcement was the Investment decision for the East Coast Supply Project, involving discovered gas resources connected to existing infrastructure. Amplitude shares closed at AUD 1.77 on 5 November 2026. The project decision identifies work authorised for development, while future production timing and volumes remain company targets.

Energy Assets and Revenue Activities

Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL) generates Operating Revenue from gas supply and Cooper Basin oil production. Its portfolio includes gas sales arrangements and acreage in the Otway and Gippsland basins. Existing production and planned development have different financial profiles: production delivers current sales, whereas new wells and subsea connections require investment before commercial gas can be delivered.

The East Coast Supply Project involves using existing infrastructure to bring additional offshore Otway Basin resources to market. Reusing facilities can avoid some components of a completely new development, but does not eliminate drilling, subsea installation, commissioning or reservoir risk. The capacity target also refers to gross production, which must not automatically be treated as net revenue attributable to Amplitude.

September 2026 Investment and Drilling Decisions

On 30 September 2026, Amplitude announced a final investment decision for the East Coast Supply Project development phase. The company described a target of up to 90 terajoules per day of gross production from 2028, rather than an already operating production rate. Its expected point-forward development expenditure was AUD 190–210 million net to the company across FY27 and FY28. Those figures are forecasts and remain subject to actual project delivery.

The company also sanctioned the Nestor exploration well, which may add resources or future production if drilling confirms a commercial discovery. Separately, Amplitude reported the completion of the Juliet-1 exploration well, with an Annie development well to follow. Each well serves a different purpose in the project sequence, making it important to distinguish exploration results from sanctioned development.

Earlier in September, Amplitude reported gas indications from Juliet-1 while drilling in the offshore Otway Basin. Preliminary logging readings supported an interpretation of probable Hydrocarbons in the targeted reservoir, but an indication is not itself a final assessment of recoverable reserves or commercial production. Subsequent testing and evaluation determine how such observations are incorporated into project planning.

Capital Requirements and Execution Factors

For Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL), committed development expenditure creates a funding and construction schedule to monitor. The reported spending range concerns point-forward project costs over two financial years, rather than the full historical cost of the gas asset portfolio. Any changes in contracts, drilling results or construction requirements could affect spending and commissioning schedules. Existing gas revenue and oil activity remain relevant to the company’s ability to manage those obligations.

Delivery of offshore gas developments depends on drilling outcomes, subsea installation, regulatory approvals, contractor availability and operational safety. These are identifiable operating exposures rather than predictions about Amplitude’s share price or certainty of production from 2028.

Upcoming milestones include the Annie development well, the Nestor exploration program, contracted subsea work and subsequent financial reporting on project costs. Monitoring the difference between gross capacity targets and Amplitude’s attributable production will be important as construction advances.

Key Insights

Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL) moved its East Coast Supply Project into a sanctioned development phase during 2026. The 2028 production objective and FY27–FY28 spending estimate remain forward-looking. Results from upcoming wells, construction delivery and the performance of existing gas and oil operations will provide evidence about execution.

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