Key Highlights

  • Amplitude reported record FY26 production of 27.6 PJe and sales revenue of AUD 285.8 million, up 7 per cent, at an average realised gas price of AUD 10.35 a gigajoule.
  • The Orbost Gas Processing Plant hit a daily record of 74.7 TJ/day in July 2026, beyond its 68 TJ/day nameplate.
  • The Otway expansion, now the East Coast Supply Project, is targeting a final investment decision in the September 2026 quarter, later than flagged in January.
  • Elanora-1 was water-bearing in February 2026 and the Isabella sidetrack was declared non-commercial in March, leaving Annie and Artisan as the base resource.

Record annual output and a rehabilitated Orbost plant have handed Amplitude Energy its strongest operating year yet. But two disappointing Otway wells and a slipping investment decision have dulled the growth story, leaving the coming months to determine whether hard-won reliability can be converted into expansion.

Reliability is an unglamorous virtue in oil and gas, but for Amplitude Energy it has been the entire plot of the past three years. The company traded as Cooper Energy until its 2024 rebrand, and much of that earlier life was hostage to one piece of equipment: the sulphur-removal system at the Orbost Gas Processing Plant in eastern Victoria, which forced repeated shutdowns and held the Sole gas field below its design potential.

That problem now looks largely tamed. In the year to 30 June 2026 Amplitude delivered record production of 27.6 petajoules equivalent (a PJe lets gas and liquids be added together) and record revenue of AUD 285.8 million. The harder question is what comes next. The answer is the East Coast Supply Project, a subsea expansion in the offshore Otway Basin off Port Campbell in western Victoria, run 50-50 with O.G. Energy. Two of its wells have already come up short, the investment decision has drifted, and the shares have spent 2026 well below their highs.

What Has Happened?

Amplitude released its June-quarter and full-year FY26 operating results in mid-July 2026, following up with an 18-page investor presentation lodged with the ASX on 22 July 2026. The realised gas price averaged AUD 10.35/GJ, up 4 per cent. Spread evenly, 27.6 PJe equates to about 75.6 TJe/day, comfortably inside the 73 to 77 TJe/day range the company upgraded to in February 2026.

Orbost is the engine behind that. The plant treats raw gas from the Sole field in the offshore Gippsland Basin, and its sulphur-removal absorbers were long the bottleneck. Downtime tied to absorber cleaning has fallen from about 390 hours in FY23 to roughly 128 hours in FY26. In the December 2025 quarter the plant ran above 66 TJ/day on around 95 per cent of days with no absorber cleans at all, and clearance to push beyond nameplate followed. The July 2026 record of 74.7 TJ/day compares with an average nearer 47 TJ/day in May 2023.

The Otway drilling campaign has been a different story. Elanora-1, drilled with the Transocean Equinox rig, reached total depth on 10 February 2026 and found the primary Waarre A target water-bearing. The rig sidetracked to the adjacent Isabella prospect, which did encounter gas, but a flow test led Amplitude to declare it non-commercial and plug the well in late March. Management argues Waarre A does not read across to the Waarre C targets behind the rest of the program.

Two commercial moves have since reshaped the project. The VIC/L37 production licence over the Annie gas field was granted on 7 May 2026. On 25 May Amplitude agreed to buy 50 per cent of permit VIC/L35, containing the Artisan discovery, from Beach Energy for AUD 58.3 million net in cash, with O.G. Energy taking a further 10 per cent and Amplitude becoming operator. Annie and Artisan now form the expansion's base resource, with Juliet-1 due to spud in late July or early August.

Understanding the Company

Amplitude is a pure-play domestic gas business: no oil, no liquefied natural gas exports, and almost everything it produces sold into south-east Australia. Revenue comes from two hubs. In Gippsland, the Sole field feeds the wholly owned Orbost plant. In the Otway Basin, the Casino, Henry and Netherby fields feed the Athena Gas Plant near Port Campbell, held 50-50 with O.G. Energy and rated at roughly 150 TJ/day.

That second hub is the strategic point. Athena has substantial spare capacity, the offshore pipelines are in place, and the fields feeding it are maturing. The East Coast Supply Project would close that gap with subsea tiebacks rather than new infrastructure: up to 90 TJ/day of extra throughput through the existing plant, first gas targeted for 2028. Front-end engineering is complete, and in late April 2026 UK-based JDR Cable Systems was contracted for about 18 kilometres of subsea control umbilicals. Offshore installation is scheduled for late 2027.

Gas is sold under fixed-price and CPI-indexed contracts with major Australian utilities, plus opportunistic spot sales. In the December 2025 quarter Amplitude sold about 2,000 TJ, a third of Orbost's sales gas, into the Victorian and Sydney spot markets. Contracted prices rose 20 per cent from 1 January 2026.

Financial and Operational Position

The balance-sheet turnaround has been rapid. Net debt stood at AUD 229.0 million on 30 September 2025. A AUD 150 million equity raising in October, plus stronger cash generation, cut that to AUD 34.2 million by 31 December, with cash of AUD 81.0 million. For the six months to 31 December the company posted revenue of AUD 141.5 million and statutory net profit of AUD 26.2 million, its first genuinely profitable half after a FY25 statutory loss of about AUD 41.3 million.

The September 2025 quarter delivered 6.85 PJe and AUD 69.9 million at AUD 10.16/GJ; the December quarter lifted to 7.03 PJe and AUD 71.6 million at AUD 10.32/GJ. That implies a second half near 13.7 PJe and roughly AUD 144 million, with higher contracted pricing doing much of the work.

One caveat: Amplitude has not, in the material reviewed here, disclosed net debt as at 30 June 2026, and the Artisan payment falls inside that window. Statutory accounts follow on 18 August 2026.

Why the Development Matters

The expansion is large relative to Amplitude's size. Published estimates put the drilling phase at AUD 240 million to AUD 270 million and the subsea and Athena modification phase at AUD 140 million to AUD 185 million, shared equally with O.G. Energy. Amplitude's net share therefore sits near AUD 190 million to AUD 230 million, against a market capitalisation around AUD 450 million at AUD 1.50 a share on 16 July 2026. This is not a bolt-on.

The demand backdrop explains the persistence. The Australian Energy Market Operator has flagged peak-day shortfall risk in the southern states from 2028, with annual gaps from 2029. Gas deliverable into Victoria and South Australia through existing plant, without new pipelines or import terminals, carries obvious scarcity value.

Execution is where the case tightens. The two failed wells removed volume that would have improved project economics, which is why the Artisan purchase looks less like opportunism than necessity. Buying a discovered field 17 kilometres from existing pipeline substitutes purchased certainty for drilling risk. It also spends cash only just raised.

Potential Growth Catalysts

Juliet-1 exploration well, expected to spud in late July or early August 2026, targeting a Waarre C reservoir.

A final investment decision on the East Coast Supply Project, targeted for the September 2026 quarter.

FY26 statutory results on 18 August 2026, including the 30 June net debt position and any FY27 guidance.

The Annie-2 development well and a decision on the optional Nestor prospect, both dependent on Juliet's outcome.

Progress on the Patricia Baleen restart in Gippsland, where a licence application remains outstanding.

Risks and Challenges

Exploration risk has already crystallised twice in six months. Juliet and Nestor carry the same geological uncertainty, and a third poor result would leave the expansion leaning almost entirely on Annie and Artisan. That would not necessarily stop the project, but it would compress returns.

Concentration is the second issue. Orbost is one plant treating gas from one field, and it accounts for the bulk of group output. Running above the original design rate is not the same as running there indefinitely, and any recurrence of sulphur-removal trouble would hit revenue immediately.

Funding and timing form the third cluster. Amplitude has cut net debt sharply but faces a multi-year program worth a material fraction of its market value. Installation is not scheduled until late 2027, leaving a long window for cost escalation, vessel availability problems or regulatory delay. Approvals through NOPSEMA involve public consultation, and Australian offshore gas projects have a record of slippage.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Juliet is the most immediate signal. A commercial result would restore confidence in the geological model and improve the economics an investment decision must clear; another disappointment would sharpen questions about how much of the 90 TJ/day ambition is deliverable. Close behind is the August results release.

Juliet-1 spud and results, expected from late July 2026.

Whether the project decision lands inside the September 2026 quarter target.

Net debt and liquidity at 30 June 2026, disclosed with FY26 results.

Orbost's sustained daily rate through FY27 and whether absorber downtime stays near FY26 levels.

Conclusion

Amplitude has spent three years fixing a plant, and the FY26 numbers show what that fix is worth: record volumes, record revenue and a profitable half. The operational story is no longer the problem. What has replaced it is a growth story that looks more expensive and less certain than it did in January, with two wells written off, a decision pushed back and an acquisition absorbing part of a recently raised equity buffer.

The unusual feature here is that expansion does not depend on building anything large. It depends on finding or buying enough gas to fill a plant the company already half owns, in a market regulators expect to be short from 2028. That is a low-infrastructure path to growth, and an unforgiving one: without the resource, spare capacity is idle steel.