Highlights

  • FY27 production guidance of 26.6-28.5 PJe follows a record FY26 in which output rose 3.5% to 27.6 PJe and Revenue increased 7% to $285.8 million.
  • Underlying EBITDAX momentum, up 12% to $191.8 million in FY26, is expected to continue as Amplitude Energy targets further Margin gains.
  • Underlying profit after tax jumped to $45.0 million from $9.1 million, giving the Balance Sheet extra capacity heading into a heavier Investment phase.
  • Net Debt fell to $37.6 million, positioning Amplitude Energy to fund FY27 Capital Expenditure of $250 million to $310 million as the East Coast Supply Project advances toward 2028 first gas.

Amplitude Energy Limited (ASX:AEL) is entering FY27 with its clearest growth pathway in years, underpinned by record FY26 production, revenue and cash generation and a strengthening balance sheet that positions the company to fund its next phase of development. Group production reached 27.6 PJe in FY26, up 3.5%, while sales revenue rose 7% to $285.8 million, giving Amplitude Energy a solid platform from which to pursue the East Coast Supply Project (ECSP) and its associated production growth.

The outlook is shaped by two competing forces: a Gippsland Basin operation that is performing above expectations, and an Otway and Cooper Basin footprint in natural decline. How Amplitude Energy balances the two, while ramping up capital spending on ECSP, will determine the trajectory of Earnings through FY27 and into FY28.

Gippsland Strength Supports the Near-Term Outlook

The company's near-term production outlook leans heavily on continued strong performance from the Gippsland Basin, where gas output increased 7.2% to 24.3 PJ in FY26. Debottlenecking and sulphur-processing improvements at the Orbost Gas Processing Plant have lifted throughput well beyond its original 68 TJ/d nameplate capacity, with the plant sustaining production above 70 TJ/d and setting a daily record of 74.7 TJ.

That momentum, evidenced by a July 2026 monthly average of 73.5 TJ/d, gives Amplitude Energy confidence that Gippsland can continue offsetting weaker performance elsewhere in the portfolio as FY27 progresses, although a scheduled OGPP maintenance shutdown is factored into the outlook.

By contrast, the outlook for the Otway Basin points to continued softness, with production expected to keep declining as the Casino, Henry and Netherby fields mature. Cooper Basin oil and condensate output is likewise expected to remain under pressure from natural field decline, tempered only partially by new Callawonga wells.

Earnings Trajectory Looks Constructive Despite Reported Loss

Investors weighing Amplitude Energy's prospects will need to look past the FY26 reported loss after tax of $27.2 million, which stemmed from one-off exploration write-offs at Elanora and Isabella rather than any deterioration in the underlying business. The more telling signal for FY27 is the near five-fold increase in Underlying Profit after tax, to $45.0 million from $9.1 million, alongside a 12% rise in underlying EBITDAX to $191.8 million.

With unit production costs falling to $2.07/GJe and an EBITDAX margin of 67%, the company's cost base looks well positioned to support earnings even as FY27 capital spending scales up materially. Adjusted cash from operations, up 19% to $191.0 million, adds further confidence that Amplitude Energy can self-fund a large share of its growth ambitions.

Balance Sheet Positioned to Fund the Next Phase

Amplitude Energy's improved balance sheet is central to its forward outlook. Net debt fell to $37.6 million at 30 June 2026, cash and cash equivalents rose to $137.5 million, and drawn debt declined to $175.2 million. That deleveraging gives the company headroom to absorb a step-change in FY27 capital expenditure guidance of $250 million to $310 million, which the company intends to fund through existing cash and organic cash generation over 2026-2028.

The sharp fall in restoration payments, down 83% to $10.5 million, has also freed up cash that can now be redirected toward growth capital rather than legacy liabilities, reinforcing the more favourable funding outlook heading into FY27.

East Coast Supply Project Defines the Medium-Term Outlook

The East Coast Supply Project remains the single biggest swing Factor in Amplitude Energy's outlook, with the company targeting new offshore Otway Basin gas production through the Athena Gas Plant from 2028. FY26 drilling results were mixed: the Elanora Waarre A target proved water-bearing, and while a sidetrack at Isabella intersected gas-bearing sands, pressure readings did not support commercial development, leading to the well being plugged and abandoned.

Attention now shifts to Juliet exploration drilling and the Annie development well, with a final investment decision for the ECSP development phase expected in Q1 FY27. Amplitude Energy has reiterated that project budgets and timelines remain unchanged, keeping first gas targeted for calendar 2028 -- a milestone that will be closely watched as the defining event in the company's growth outlook.

FY27 Guidance Sets the Framework

Amplitude Energy's FY27 outlook calls for production of 26.6-28.5 PJe, reflecting sustained Gippsland output offset by the OGPP maintenance shutdown and natural decline across several fields. Production expenses are guided at $58 million to $64 million, with other cash expenses and cost of sales expected at $27 million to $31 million.

Additional non-regular costs of roughly $6 million to $7 million for an ERP replacement project and about $5 million for Patricia Baleen pipeline inspections are built into the outlook, alongside the substantially higher capital expenditure programme tied to ECSP.

Conclusion

Amplitude Energy's outlook for FY27 and beyond hinges on the company successfully translating a strong FY26 operating and financial performance into disciplined execution of the East Coast Supply Project. Gippsland Basin strength provides a dependable earnings base, while Otway and Cooper Basin declines represent a known headwind that management appears to have planned around. With net debt reduced to $37.6 million and underlying profitability rebuilding quickly, Amplitude Energy looks better placed than in recent years to fund a substantially larger capital programme. The progress of Juliet and Annie drilling, the timing of the ECSP final investment decision, and the path to 2028 first gas will be the key markers determining whether the company's growth outlook is realised on schedule.