Key Highlights

  • Amplitude Energy lifted FY2026 Revenue 7% to AUD 285.8 million.
  • Underlying EBITDAX increased 12% to AUD 191.8 million.
  • Net Debt fell about 85% to AUD 37.6 million.
  • The company is targeting an East Coast Supply Project Investment decision in early FY2027.

Amplitude Energy (ASX: AEL), the Gippsland and Otway Basin gas producer formerly known as Cooper Energy, has moved into sharper focus as Australia's east-coast gas market tightens and the company edges toward a growth decision that could reshape its earnings. As a domestic gas supplier feeding into a market widely flagged as facing shortfalls later this decade, Amplitude sits at the intersection of energy-security concerns and its own production growth ambitions.

The company delivered record FY26 results on 18 August, underlining how far it has come operationally. Revenue rose 7% to $285.8 million, underlying EBITDAX increased 12% to $191.8 million, and underlying net profit after tax came in at $45.0 million, though a reported loss of $27.2 million reflected exploration write-offs. Production edged up 3.5% to 27.6 petajoules equivalent. Crucially, the Balance Sheet strengthened sharply: net debt fell about 85% to $37.6 million and cash stood at $137.5 million, giving Amplitude firepower for its growth plans.

The East Coast Supply Project is the swing factor

The centrepiece of the investment case is the East Coast Supply Project, or ECSP, in the offshore Otway Basin, built around the Annie and Artisan gas fields. Amplitude has said it is targeting a final investment decision in the first quarter of FY27, with first gas expected in 2028. Management has described the project as capable of materially lifting Earnings once it comes online, and has pointed to gas sales agreements of 8.75 petajoules a year on initial four-year terms as evidence of demand. During the year the company also moved to secure a 50% interest in the Artisan field through a cash payment of $58.3 million plus a capped royalty.

Because the ECSP would add new supply into a constrained market, its timing aligns with the very shortfalls that policymakers and the competition regulator have warned about for the southern states. That is the crux of the "next energy cycle" framing: if east-coast prices stay firm and supply stays tight, incremental volumes from a low-cost offshore project could be well timed.

Operating metrics point to discipline

Beneath the growth story, the FY26 operating numbers suggest a Business running efficiently. Gippsland Basin production rose 7.2% to 24.3 PJ, the average realised gas price increased 5% to $10.36 a gigajoule, and unit production costs fell 11% to $2.07 a gigajoule. Adjusted cash from operations rose 19% to $191.0 million. Low unit costs and firm pricing widen margins, which matters when the company is about to commit Capital to a major development.

Guidance and what to watch

Amplitude guided to FY27 production of 26.6 to 28.5 PJe, with production expenses of $58 million to $64 million and Capital Expenditure of $250 million to $310 million, excluding decommissioning. The elevated capex reflects the shift toward ECSP execution.

The near-term catalysts are clear: confirmation of the ECSP final investment decision, further gas sales agreements, and drilling and development progress toward 2028 first gas. Positive movement on any of these would firm up the growth thesis.

The risks are equally concrete. A project of this scale carries execution, cost and schedule risk, and first gas remains years away. Gas prices, while currently supportive, are subject to policy intervention and Demand shifts, and exploration write-offs this year are a reminder that not every prospect pays off. Amplitude enters FY27 with a stronger balance sheet, record cash generation and a defined growth project, but the decisive question is whether it can sanction and deliver the ECSP into a tightening market on time and on budget.