Why Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) Could Be One ASX Stock to Watch in September

Sonal Goyal

01 September 2026 11:09 AM AEST

Why Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) Could Be One ASX Stock to Watch in September

Image Source: Shutterstock

You are reading a free article with opinions that may differ from the recommendation given by Kalkine in its paid research reports. Become a Kalkine member today to get access to our research reports, in-depth technical and fundamental research. Learn more

Start Your Free Trial Now!

Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX:TWE) is one of the world's largest wine companies, best known for the premium Penfolds Brand alongside a large Americas portfolio. Its fortunes hinge on the strength of Penfolds, particularly in China following the removal of tariffs, and on the performance and restructuring of its United States business.

A FY26 result that beat Earnings guidance but carried a heavy Impairment has put Treasury Wine firmly in focus heading into September.

Latest Development

For FY26, Treasury Wine reported earnings before interest, tax and self-generating and regenerating Assets (EBITS) of A$492 million, ahead of guidance, though the EBITS Margin eased to around 19%. Penfolds delivered EBITS of A$404 million, supported by China depletions growing roughly 35%, partly from recapturing parallel-imported volumes into authorised channels.

The statutory result was a loss of A$1.1 million, driven by a A$1.3 billion non-cash impairment of United States assets; pre-material-item net profit was A$275 million. The Dividend remains suspended as the company prioritises reducing Leverage from 2.8 times toward below 2.0 times by FY28, and it guided FY27 group EBITS to be at least equal to FY26, aided by cost savings.

With the dividend suspended and leverage the priority, the FY27 guidance for stable EBITS and around A$40 million of cost savings frames a Business focused on Penfolds momentum and fixing the Americas.

What Could Drive the Shares Next?

Catalysts include continued Penfolds growth, particularly in China and Asia, the outcome of the Americas review and any restructuring, delivery of cost savings, and progress on deleveraging toward the resumption of dividends. A credible turnaround in the United States business would be significant.

Sustained Penfolds strength alongside an Americas fix would be the clearest positive driver.

Risks Investors Should Watch

The Americas business is the clear weak point, and the large impairment underlines the risk there; a further deterioration would weigh on the group. Reliance on China for Penfolds growth exposes it to that market's Demand and any policy shifts.

The suspended dividend reflects balance-sheet priorities, and execution on deleveraging and the Americas review are key uncertainties.

Investor Takeaway

Treasury Wine beat earnings guidance with FY26 EBITS of A$492 million led by Penfolds, but a A$1.3 billion United States impairment drove a statutory loss and kept the dividend suspended. Whether it is one to watch depends on Penfolds momentum and fixing the Americas. Penfolds and China, the Americas review and deleveraging are the things to watch.

FAQs

Q: Why did Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) report a statutory loss despite beating guidance?

A: The statutory loss of A$1.1 million was driven by a A$1.3 billion non-cash impairment of United States assets, even as group EBITS of A$492 million came in ahead of guidance, led by Penfolds.

Q: What is driving Penfolds' growth?

A: Penfolds delivered EBITS of A$404 million, supported by China depletions growing roughly 35%, partly from recapturing parallel-imported volumes into authorised channels.

Q: Why is Treasury Wine Estates' dividend suspended?

A: The dividend remains suspended as the company prioritises reducing leverage from 2.8 times toward below 2.0 times by FY28, with resumption tied to progress on deleveraging.

Download Free Report – Explore 3 Stock Ideas & Industry Insights

Unlock 3 stock ideas and key industry insights in our free report. This information is general in nature and does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is not financial advice.

All investments involve risk—consider independent advice before making any investment decisions.

View 3 Research Reports

Disclaimer:

This article (“Article”) has been prepared by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and its related bodies corporate who are authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and its associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any information/advice provided in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the information is appropriate for your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Memorandum or other offer document (“Offer Document”) for the securities or other financial products referred to in Kalkine articles. You should obtain a copy of the Offer Document and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or financial product.

Kalkine strongly recommends that you seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) before acting on any advice/information in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this Article and on Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the information contained in its articles (including this Article), newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice.

The information in this Article does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products.

Kalkine does not issue, sell or deal in any financial products.

This Article may contain information on past performance of particular investments. Please note past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

To the extent permitted by law, and excluding any dishonesty or gross negligence by Kalkine, Kalkine disclaims and excludes all liability for any direct, indirect, implied, punitive, special, incidental or other consequential loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on this Article, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website without any warranties or representations by Kalkine to you. To the extent the law prohibits or limits this exclusion, Kalkine limits its liability to the resupply of services.

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information.

Employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities may hold interests in the securities or other financial products covered in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

Some of the images/music that may be used in the Article are copyright to their respective owner(s). Kalkine does not claim ownership of any of the pictures displayed/music used in the Article unless stated otherwise. The images/music that may be used in the Article are taken from various sources on the internet, including paid subscriptions or are believed to be in public domain. We have used reasonable efforts to accredit the source wherever it was indicated or was found to be necessary.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website.