Highlights

  • The opening seven weeks of FY27 produced group like-for-like sales growth of 1.5% and total sales growth of 3.5%, continuing FY26's momentum.
  • Supercheap Auto recorded 4.0% like-for-like growth in early FY27 trading, building on 3.3% segment PBT growth in FY26.
  • The group expects FY27 Capital Expenditure of approximately $160 million and plans to open a net 18 stores while continuing Project Ignite.
  • Macpac's early FY27 like-for-like sales declined 8.9%, a notable Reversal after the Brand delivered 32% segment PBT growth in FY26.

Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) enters FY27 with encouraging early trading momentum, following a FY26 in which group sales reached a record $4.2 billion, up 3.2%, even as statutory NPAT declined 7.2% to $206 million amid higher operating and project costs. The company's outlook for the new financial year is shaped by continued Investment in its Project Ignite transformation programme and a set of brand-level trading trends that point to a more encouraging start than the FY26 profit result might suggest.

With a fully franked final Dividend of 33 cents per share taking FY26 Ordinary Dividends to 65 cents, and net Debt of just $14 million, Super Retail Group heads into FY27 from a position of balance-sheet strength, even as the Earnings outlook depends on translating early sales momentum into improved profitability across its four brands.

Early FY27 Trading Signals Continued Sales Growth

The opening seven weeks of FY27 produced group like-for-like sales growth of 1.5% and total sales growth of 3.5%, broadly consistent with the 1.8% like-for-like and 3.2% total sales growth recorded across all of FY26. This early data suggests the group's sales momentum, rather than reversing, is continuing into the new financial year.

Supercheap Auto led the early trading update with 4.0% like-for-like growth, ahead of its FY26 full-year pace of 2.7%, while rebel increased 1.1% and BCF posted a more modest 0.4% like-for-like gain -- an improvement on BCF's 2.1% like-for-like decline across FY26.

Macpac's Reversal Is a Key Watch Point

The clearest area of concern in Super Retail Group's early FY27 outlook is Macpac, which recorded an 8.9% like-for-like sales decline in the opening seven weeks -- a sharp reversal after the brand delivered the group's strongest FY26 profit growth, with segment PBT up 32% to $13.6 million and Margin expansion of 120 basis points to 5.7%. Management has already flagged that mild winter conditions affected Macpac's insulation product sales late in FY26, and the early FY27 data suggests this softness has carried into the new year.

Given Macpac's smaller scale relative to the group's other brands, its FY27 trajectory is likely to have a more contained impact on overall group performance, but the reversal nonetheless represents an important trend to monitor as the year progresses.

Brand-Level Momentum From FY26 Carries Into the Outlook

Supercheap Auto's FY26 performance -- 3.9% total sales growth to $1.6 billion and 3.3% segment PBT growth to $203.3 million, alongside 17% growth in online sales to $147 million -- provides the strongest foundation among the group's brands heading into FY27, reinforced by its early leading like-for-like growth figures.

rebel's FY26 result, with 4.5% sales growth to $1.4 billion and 4.3% segment PBT growth to $105.1 million supported by improved gross margin and promotional discipline, also points to a reasonably solid platform for FY27, even as its early-year like-for-like growth of 1.1% has moderated somewhat from the full-year FY26 pace of 3.8%.

BCF's outlook remains the most uncertain of the larger brands. FY26 segment PBT fell 14.3% to $52.3 million amid a 2.1% like-for-like sales decline, though the early FY27 return to modest positive like-for-like growth of 0.4% offers a tentative signal of stabilisation.

Capital Investment Plans Signal Continued Expansion

Super Retail Group's FY27 outlook includes capital expenditure of approximately $160 million, an increase from the $123 million spent in FY26, alongside plans to open a net 18 stores across the group. This represents continued investment in physical retail expansion even as the company also continues its Project Ignite transformation programme, which contributed to higher operating costs in FY26 alongside the Human Resources Core and Payroll system rollout and the Truganina distribution centre transition.

With net debt of just $14 million at the end of FY26, comfortably within its targeted gearing range, the group retains ample balance-sheet capacity to fund this expanded FY27 investment programme without straining its financial position.

Conclusion

Super Retail Group's outlook for FY27 presents a more encouraging early trading picture than its FY26 profit result alone would suggest, with group like-for-like and total sales growth continuing at a similar or slightly improved pace into the new financial year. Supercheap Auto's leading momentum and BCF's tentative stabilisation offer grounds for cautious optimism, while Macpac's sharp early reversal -- from the group's best FY26 profit growth to an 8.9% like-for-like decline -- stands out as the key risk to monitor. With approximately $160 million of planned FY27 capital expenditure, 18 net new stores and continued investment in Project Ignite, the group is positioning for further expansion, though broader consumer and economic conditions will remain an important influence on how the year unfolds.