Select Harvests (ASX:SHV): Almond Crop Update, HY26 Earnings and Capital Management

Aditi Sarkar

23 October 2026 12:29 AM AEDT

Select Harvests (ASX:SHV): Almond Crop Update, HY26 Earnings and Capital Management

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Highlights

Select Harvests (ASX:SHV) estimates its 2026 almond crop at 28,800 to 29,600 tonnes, 16% to 19% above the prior corresponding period.
HY26 underlying NPAT rose about 33% to A$29.1 million, with underlying EPS of 20.5 cents.
The 2026 pool price is A$10.26 per kilogram, with the crop 91% hedged at US$0.665.
FY26 full-year results are scheduled for 25 November 2026.

Select Harvests Limited is a vertically integrated Australian almond business, with orchards, primary processing and value-added processing under one structure. The company updated shareholders in early September on crop size, pricing, one-off costs and year-end debt, following half-year results in May that included an interim dividend and an on-market share repurchase program.

Company Business

Select Harvests grows almonds on orchards in north-west Victoria, southern New South Wales and South Australia. Nuts are processed at the Carina West facility at Wemen in Victoria, where processing capacity has been increased to 55,000 tonnes. The company also sources almonds from external growers.

Earnings depend on crop yield, the price received for almonds and the exchange rate, with crop hedging referenced to US dollars. Select Harvests (ASX:SHV) has set a target of 65,000 tonnes and A$700 million in revenue by 2030, supported by higher yields, processing efficiency, direct customer relationships in markets including China and India, and value-added sales.

Recent Development

In early September 2026, Select Harvests (ASX:SHV) issued a trading update narrowing its 2026 crop estimate to 28,800 to 29,600 tonnes, from a previous range of 28,000 to 31,000 tonnes. The company described the result as near record, despite unusually wet weather in late February and early March that left harvest rainfall above 300% of average in some regions. It reported that 81% of the crop had been sold or contracted.

External grower volumes are now expected to be 13,800 to 14,200 tonnes, compared with earlier guidance of 15,400 tonnes. One-off operational costs rose to A$13.9 million from A$6.9 million, reflecting wet-harvest impacts, the Middle East conflict, inflation and other non-recurring items, with about A$7 million arising in the second half.

The company expects net debt below A$65 million at year end, with gearing below 11%. About A$30 million of investment is planned for a new pre-cleaner and dryer, a kernel recovery line, new shakers and capacity expansion.

Financial Performance and Sector Context

For the six months ended 31 March 2026, EBITDA was A$59.0 million, compared with A$62.7 million in the prior corresponding period. Reported NPAT was A$26.6 million, against A$28.7 million, while underlying NPAT rose about 33% to A$29.1 million. Underlying earnings per share were 20.5 cents, up from 15.3 cents. Net debt at the half-year balance date was A$182.6 million, compared with A$168.2 million, reflecting crop investment after a later-than-usual harvest.

The board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 3.5 cents per share, paid on 15 July 2026, with no interim dividend in the prior corresponding period. An on-market repurchase of up to 10% of issued capital, or up to 14,210,763 shares, was also announced, funded from cash reserves.

The 2026 pool price is A$10.26 per kilogram, up from A$10.21, and management expects a meaningfully improved FY26 result weighted to the second half. For sector context, Select Harvests reported that global almond prices have risen over the past six months and recently reached a ten-year high in United States dollar terms. California supplies about 77% of global almonds, and its bearing acreage is forecast to fall for the first time since 1995, with the decline expected to continue for three to five years.

Risks to Consider

Select Harvests (ASX:SHV) is exposed to weather during flowering and harvest. Almond prices and the Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate affect revenue, and although the 2026 crop is 91% hedged, later crops may carry different outcomes. The company has also reported disrupted market access in the Middle East, rising input and freight costs and higher one-off costs than previously stated. Reliance on external grower supply, which was revised down from earlier guidance, and the timing of capital works are further operating considerations.

What to Watch Next

The FY26 full-year results are scheduled for release on 25 November 2026. That report is expected to show final crop volumes, realised pricing, one-off costs, year-end net debt and any further capital management decisions. Progress on the A$30 million capital program and the repurchase may also be covered.

Key Insights

Select Harvests (ASX:SHV) is reporting a near-record 2026 almond crop, a higher pool price than earlier estimated and improved underlying half-year earnings, alongside higher one-off costs and lower external grower volumes. Net debt is expected to fall by year end. Monitoring points include the November results, crop quality and sales completion, currency hedging outcomes, global almond supply and progress toward the 2030 targets.

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